On Thursday, April 3, Citi Research lowered its forecast for base metal prices in 2025, citing the tariffs announced by the Trump administration and the impending tariffs that will pose significant headwinds to demand.
According to China News Service, US President Trump signed an executive order on the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" at the White House on the 2nd, announcing that the US will impose a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners and levy higher tariffs on certain trading partners. According to the executive order, the 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on all trading partners will take effect on April 5, while the different and higher so-called "reciprocal tariffs" on the countries and regions with the largest trade deficits with the US will take effect on April 9.
Citi analysts stated in a report: "We emphasize that due to high positioning, copper, zinc, and aluminum are the most vulnerable to downside risks."
Citi has revised its 2025 copper price forecast from $9,100 per mt to $8,860 per mt.
LME three-month copper closed down $334, or 3.44%, at $9,366.50 per mt on Thursday, hitting a low of $9,340 during the session, the lowest since March 4.
Although metals are largely unaffected by reciprocal tariffs, Citi still expects the Section 232 tariffs on copper to take effect in Q2.
The bank also lowered its aluminum price forecast from $2,615 per mt to $2,480 per mt, nickel price forecast from $16,000 per mt to $15,500 per mt, zinc price forecast from $2,750 per mt to $2,630 per mt, lead price forecast from $1,975 per mt to $1,950 per mt, and tin price forecast from $33,750 per mt to $33,700 per mt.
To learn more about the dynamics of the copper industry chain, you are welcome to attend the CCIE 2025 SMM (20th) Copper Conference and Copper Industry Expo, hosted by SMM, which will be held grandly in Nanchang, Jiangxi from April 22-25, 2025. Over 3,000 industry elites, representatives of upstream and downstream enterprises in the copper industry chain, government officials, industry associations, third-party equipment, logistics and warehousing, and university research experts will gather together. The conference covers mines, smelting, copper processing, trade, recycling, and end-use applications, encompassing the entire copper industry chain. At the conference, more than 100 exhibitors will showcase the latest copper processing and smelting equipment, high-quality raw material suppliers, and new-type copper-based materials, highlighting the innovation and vitality of the copper industry.
The conference features a variety of exciting activities: the main forum focuses on global copper market trends, raw material supply, policy impacts, and market direction. Sub-forums delve into industry hot topics such as electrical power transmission and distribution, secondary copper, copper-based new materials, hardware and plumbing, and ESS. During the conference, there will also be a two-day field trip to 12 representative enterprises in the copper industry with a cumulative capacity of 1 million mt. Share cutting-edge technologies and valuable experiences to help upgrade the copper industry chain and promote high-quality development in the industry.
CCIE 2025 SMM (20th) Copper Conference and Copper Industry Expo
helps you grasp the industry pulse, expand your network, and seek business opportunities! SMM cordially invites you to gather in Nanchang, Jiangxi from April 22-25, to unite in the new era of copper and jointly plan for new development!
