SMM Analysis: According to SMM, China's copper foil enterprise operating rate reached 82.17% in September 2025, up 3.73 percentage points MoM and up 7.54 percentage points YoY...

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Tomorrow is expected to see the last trading day for the SHFE copper 2510 contract, with trading activity likely to remain subdued. However, the market expects the price center for the next month's quotations to rise. Given the widening import losses, smelters may increase their export efforts, and the premium center is anticipated to rise after the contract rollover.

Spot prices of #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract in North China today were at a discount of 200-140 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 170 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Transaction prices ranged from 85,600-85,940 yuan/mt, with an average of 85,770 yuan/mt, up 970 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

[SMM Analysis:In 2025, the disruption rate in copper mine supply surged sharply, with multiple large copper mines reducing or halting production] This year's copper concentrate supply is significantly lower than initially expected at the beginning of the year, resulting in a year-on-year decrease in copper concentrate supply for 2025. According to SMM calculations, the global copper concentrate supply-demand balance for this year is projected to be -326,000 tonnes.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: LME copper opened at $10,648.5/mt overnight, initially touched a low of $10,621.5/mt, then fluctuated upward throughout the session, approaching the tail end to touch a high of $10,864.5/mt, and finally closed at $10,802/mt, with a gain of 4.13%. Trading volume reached 29,000 lots, and open interest reached 323,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2511 opened at 85,800 yuan/mt overnight, touched a low of 85,580 yuan/mt at the opening, then copper prices maintained a high center and fluctuated rangebound, approaching the tail end to touch a high of 86,790 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 86,520 yuan/mt, with a gain of 2.02%. Trading volume reached 85,000 lots, and open interest reached 200,000 lots.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, copper prices are expected to remain at relatively high levels despite a slight pullback, and spot transactions are unlikely to improve significantly. Trading activity is expected to decline as the delivery date approaches.