[SMM Tin Midday Review: Spot Market Continues "High Premium, Low Transaction Volume" Pattern, Downstream Enterprises Only Maintain Just-in-Time Procurement] The spot market continues the "high premium, low transaction volume" pattern. SMM1# tin ingot spot cargo is quoted at RMB 267,400-269,400 yuan/mt. However, the high price suppresses downstream enterprises' willingness to restock. Terminal orders in electronics, home appliances, and other sectors have not seen significant growth. Solder enterprises only maintain just-in-time procurement. There is still demand potential in the new energy and AI computing power sectors (e.g., tin for PV welding strips and AI server chips), but in the short term, it is suppressed by high tin prices, and actual consumption growth has not yet materialized.

Driven by macro factors, the most-traded SHFE tin contract saw a slight uptick during the night session. [SMM Tin Morning News] Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Alphamin Resources Corp.'s Bisie tin mine produced 1,290 mt of metal tin between April 15 and May 11, 2025, achieving the expected processing recovery rate. Tin production commenced by processing raw ore stockpiles from the mine, initially from the Mpama North plant, followed by the restart of the Mpama South plant on April 19, 2025. In the last week of April 2025, blasting and transportation of underground ore began, while the mine development rate also increased. Since the restart of the mine, the first batch of fully documented and approved tin concentrates for export was dispatched by truck on May 9, 2025. (Bullish ★) (2) Demand side: After the Labour Day holiday, some downstream processing enterprises gradually resumed operations, and there was some release of demand for restocking at lower prices, but transactions at higher prices remained sluggish. (Bearish ★)

[SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary: SHFE Tin Ingot Inventory Falls to 8,025 mt, SHFE Tin Prices Pull Back After a Slight Rally to Highs] Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) exhibited a fluctuating trend at highs. After opening the daytime session, it rallied to 265,600 yuan/mt, but subsequently pulled back under pressure, closing near 264,750 yuan/mt in the daytime session, up slightly by 0.29% from the previous trading day. Market trading activity was moderately weak, with open interest slightly decreasing to 25,800 lots, indicating that some bulls took profits and exited the market. Bulls and bears engaged in a tug-of-war around the 265,000 yuan/mt level...

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 20 May, 2025

[SMM Tin Midday Review: The most-traded SHFE tin contract fluctuates around the 265,000 yuan/mt threshold, with mine-end supply remaining generally tight] Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) continued its pattern of fluctuating at highs. The opening price was reported at 265,600 yuan/mt, slightly higher than the previous trading day's closing price of 264,860 yuan/mt. In the morning session, it fluctuated rangebound around the 265,000 yuan/mt threshold, with market trading activity being moderately weak. Judging from recent trends, tin prices have been consolidating within the range of 263,000-266,000 yuan/mt since mid-May, with bulls and bears locked in a tug-of-war over the logic of "short-term tight balance versus easing in the long term.

[SMM Analysis: Tin Ore Imports Remained Low in April, with Persistent Supply Pressure on the Domestic Smelting Side] In April, domestic tin ore imports stood at 9,800 mt (equivalent to approximately 4,336 mt in metal content), up 18.48% MoM and down 4.22% YoY, representing an increase of 519 mt in metal content compared to March (which was equivalent to 3,817 mt in metal content). The cumulative imports from January to April reached 367,000 mt, down 47.98% YoY. In April, domestic tin ingot imports amounted to 1,128 mt, down 46.31% MoM and up 53.68% YoY. The cumulative imports from January to April totaled 7,432 mt, up 12.16% YoY...

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,500.5/mt. After fluctuating higher in early trading, it pulled back and touched a low of $9,495/mt.

The "trade-in" policy continues to drive momentum, with the most-traded SHFE tin contract fluctuating at highs after a slight opening higher in the night session. [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) Xiaomi's strategic new product launch event is scheduled for May 22, where it will unveil the "Xuanjie O1," which adopts the second-generation 3nm process technology. (Bullish ★) (2) Jensen Huang: NVIDIA will launch its next-generation GB300 AI system in Q3. It will build an AI supercomputer in Taiwan, China, and NVIDIA's DGX Spark has already entered full production. (Bullish ★) (3) With the continuous driving momentum of the "trade-in" policy, coupled with automakers' new product launches and increased self-funded sales promotions, the consumer vitality in the automotive market has significantly improved. (Bullish ★) (4) US Fed - Bostic: The number of interest rate cuts this year will depend on how things unfold, and the details of tariffs will be crucial. He leans towards only one interest rate cut this year, as it takes time to understand the impact of tariffs. Williams: Policy is somewhat restrictive and in good shape. Recent economic data has been very positive, and the key word for the economy is uncertainty. Vice Chair Jefferson: The US Fed's policy is in a very good state. We are facing risks on both sides of our dual mandate.

[SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary: No tin ore imports from Myanmar's Wa region to China in May, further widening the raw material deficit in the smelting sector] Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) remained in the doldrums throughout the day. It opened lower at 263,950 yuan/mt in the morning session. Subsequently, under the influence of macro sentiment and technical pressure, prices continued to face downward pressure, eventually closing at 264,860 yuan/mt, down 0.22% from the previous trading day. The intraday trading range was 263,470-265,480 yuan/mt, with open interest shrinking to 28,700 lots. Market trading activity was moderately weak, as bulls and bears continued to grapple over the logic of "weak reality versus strong expectations"...