The expected expansion of global supply chain gaps is supporting bullish sentiment. SHFE tin prices hit a new high for the year. [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Published: Apr 2, 2025 11:44

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SMM Tin Midday Review: Expected Widening of Global Supply Chain Gap Supports Bullish Sentiment, SHFE Tin Hits Yearly High. As of the midday session on April 2, the most-traded SHFE tin futures contract (SN2505) closed at 298,660 yuan/mt, marking a daily increase of 4.00% and reaching a new yearly high. The three-month LME tin also strengthened to $38,100/mt, up by 2.82%. In the spot market, SMM 1# tin ingot was quoted at 295,700-298,700 yuan/mt, with an average price of 297,200 yuan/mt. Trading in the spot market stalled, reflecting continued resistance to transactions at high prices.

Midday Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Futures Contract, April 2, 2025
As of midday on April 2, the most-traded SHFE tin futures contract (SN2505) closed at 298,660 yuan/mt, with an intraday increase of 4.00%, hitting a new high for the year. The three-month LME tin also strengthened to $38,100/mt, up 2.82%. In the spot market, SMM1# tin ingot was quoted at 295,700-298,700 yuan/mt, with an average price of 297,200 yuan/mt. Trading in the spot market stalled, reflecting continued resistance to transactions at high prices.

Myanmar's Resumption Delayed: The resumption meeting for the Manxiang mining area, originally scheduled for April 1, was postponed due to an earthquake. The Wa State authorities have yet to announce a new schedule, further fueling market concerns over the recovery of tin ore supply.

Ongoing Conflict in the DRC: Satellite monitoring shows that armed conflicts around the Bisie mining area in the country remain severe recently. Expectations of a widening global supply gap are supporting bullish sentiment.

High-Price Backlash Emerges: The operating rate of downstream solder companies is lower than the same period in previous years, and demand-side acceptance of high prices continues to weaken.

Macro Policy Tensions Escalate: The Trump administration is expected to announce details of tariffs on China today (involving a 20% universal tariff). Market risk aversion and supply deficit expectations are offsetting each other. The US dollar index remains high (104.3), suppressing metal valuations, but tin prices remain resilient due to supply-side narratives.

Intensified Capital Speculation: Open interest in the most-traded SHFE tin contract increased to 65,200 lots, with the proportion of speculative longs rising.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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