[SMM Analysis]March 2025 Lithium Carbonate Production Hits New High with Strong YoY and MoM Growth

Domestic lithium carbonate production reached a new historical high in March 2025, surging 23% month-on-month (MoM) and 85% year-over-year (YoY). This significant increase was primarily driven by the resumption of normal operations at upstream lithium salt enterprises following maintenance completions, coupled with additional contributions from newly expanded production lines.

Production Breakdown by Raw Material Type

1. Spodumene-Based Lithium Carbonate
   • Total production rose 24% MoM, as most lithium salt plants resumed full operations after Spring Festival overhauls.
   • The ramp-up of lower-cost production lines further boosted output.
2. Lepidolite-Based Lithium Carbonate
   • Despite production cuts at some small and medium-sized lithium salt plants due to declining lithium carbonate prices, output still increased 26% MoM, supported by strong contributions from leading producers.
3. Brine-Based Lithium Carbonate
   • Although low temperatures continued to constrain output, production recovered from previous lows, posting a 13% MoM increase.
4. Recycled Lithium Carbonate
   • Most recycling plants resumed operations in March, leading to a 31% MoM surge, albeit from a low base.

Market Outlook

Despite persistent surplus conditions pressuring lithium carbonate prices downward, integrated producers—which dominate the current output structure—are maintaining high and stable operating rates. Additionally, low-cost production lines continue to ramp up, partially offsetting production cuts from higher-cost marginal suppliers.

April 2025 Production Forecast:
Domestic lithium carbonate output is expected to remain stable at elevated levels, with fluctuations likely within a narrow range of ±1-2%.

This analysis reflects a market where structural cost advantages and integrated operations help sustain production momentum despite ongoing price pressures.