[Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, after entering into transactions with cargoes dated next month, market trading activity is expected to decrease. Maintenance at northern smelters will reduce the supply coming to Shanghai. It is anticipated that, against a backdrop of limited domestic supply, spot premiums for SHFE copper will remain firm.

In North China, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract ranged from a discount of 70-50 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 60 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The transaction price was 78,580-78,660 yuan/mt, with an average price of 78,620 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Futures: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $9,739/mt, dipped to a low of $9,708/mt in early trading, then fluctuated upward throughout the session, reaching a high of $9,813.5/mt near the close.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: On Friday evening, LME copper opened at $9,739/mt, initially dropping to a low of $9,708/mt, then fluctuating upward, reaching a high of $9,813.5/mt near the end of the session. It pulled back slightly before rebounding to close at $9,809/mt, with a 0.77% increase. The trading volume was 17,000 lots, and the open interest was 268,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper 2509 contract opened and hit a low of 78,710 yuan/mt, surged straight to a high of 79,320 yuan/mt during the session, and finally closed at 79,110 yuan/mt after pulling back, with a 0.51% increase. The trading volume was 21,000 lots, and the open interest was 118,000 lots.

After the tariff shock and global trade adjustments, the copper market remains tight in 2025. Data shows that US refined copper inventories have surged to a 21-year high, following front-loaded imports by traders seeking to avoid potential tariffs and capture inter-market arbitrage.

According to customs data, China’s refined copper imports reached 296,900 mt in July 2025, down 1.20% MoM but up 7.56% YoY. Meanwhile, exports surged sharply to 118,400 mt, representing a 49.86% MoM increase and a 69.13% YoY jump. Both import and export volumes exceeded market expectations.

According to customs data, China imported 296,900 mt of copper cathode in July, down 1.7% MoM and up 7.56% YoY. SMM compiled data from major producers of non-registered copper cathode, showing that in July, the proportion of such non-registered sources in China's imports exceeded 70% again.