★Macro★
01 ★★★【March Manufacturing PMI at 50.5%】
In March, the manufacturing PMI stood at 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points MoM, indicating a continued rebound in the manufacturing sector's prosperity level. By enterprise size, the PMI for large enterprises was 51.2%, down 1.3 percentage points MoM, but still above the threshold. The PMI for medium and small enterprises was 49.9% and 49.6%, up 0.7 and 3.3 percentage points MoM, respectively, both below the threshold. Among the five sub-indices that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new orders index, and supplier delivery time index were above the threshold, while the raw material inventory index and employment index were below the threshold.
02 ★★ 【Ministry of Finance Actively Supports Large State-Owned Commercial Banks in Supplementing Core Tier 1 Capital】
In line with the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, the Ministry of Finance will issue the first batch of special government bonds worth 500 billion yuan in 2025 to actively support the Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications, and China Postal Savings Bank in supplementing their core tier 1 capital. This capital replenishment will be steadily advanced in accordance with market-oriented and legal principles.
Currently, large state-owned commercial banks are operating and developing steadily, with stable asset quality and sufficient provision coverage. Their main regulatory indicators are all within the "healthy range." Supporting these banks in supplementing core tier 1 capital through the issuance of special government bonds will further consolidate and enhance their stable operation capabilities, promote high-quality development, create greater value and long-term stable returns for investors, and enable them to better serve as the main force in supporting the real economy, providing strong support for the steady and long-term development of the national economy.
03★★★【Trump Pressures Advisors to Escalate Tariff Measures】
US President Trump is urging senior advisors to take a more aggressive stance on tariffs. Despite many of Trump's allies on Wall Street and Capitol Hill urging the White House to adopt a more moderate approach, Trump continues to push for radical measures to fundamentally change the US economy. Trump's advisors are engaged in in-depth discussions on the exact scope of import tariffs. Officials say these tariffs will affect trillions of dollars in trade.
04 ★★ 【PBOC Achieves Net Injection of 31.7 Billion Yuan】
The PBOC conducted 166.7 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today, with a bid volume of 166.7 billion yuan and a winning bid volume of 166.7 billion yuan. The operation rate was 1.50%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 135 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured today, the PBOC achieved a net injection of 31.7 billion yuan.
★Industry and Downstream★
01 ★★★ 【March SMM Operating Rate for Steel Mills Using Externally Purchased Billets】Steel Mills Resume Production, March Operating Rate Up 5.93% MoM
According to the SMM survey, as of March 31, the operating rate for steel mills using externally purchased billets, mainly producing construction materials, was 22.14%, up 5.93 percentage points MoM and 1.93 percentage points YoY.
In March, national construction steel prices fluctuated. On March 3, the rebar price was 3,351.7 yuan/mt, the highest price in March. Later, due to slower-than-expected recovery in downstream demand and downward fluctuations in the futures market, the spot price center for construction materials shifted downward. On March 21, the rebar price was 3,228.4 yuan/mt, the lowest price in March.
02 ★★★ 【SMM Domestic Mine Operating Rate】Temporary Maintenance Increases, Iron Ore Concentrate Production Slightly Declines
According to SMM data, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines last week was 58.3%, down 1.3 percentage points WoW. Iron ore concentrate production was 778,000 mt, down 17,000 mt WoW. Additionally, mine concentrate inventory increased by 95,000 mt, with current inventory at 285,000 mt.
03★★★【Aftermath of US Tariff Nuclear Bomb: 27% of Steel Imports Evaporated in February!】
According to preliminary data from the US Census Bureau, the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) reported today that the total US steel imports in February 2025 were 2.235 million net tons, including 1.623 million net tons of finished steel (down 27.2% and 29.6% from January 2025, respectively). Year-to-date, total steel imports and finished steel imports increased by 5.7% and 7.4% compared to the same period in 2024. In the 12 months from March 2024 to February 2025, total steel imports and finished steel imports increased by 3.1% and 5.4% compared to the previous 12 months. The estimated market share of finished steel imports in February was 22%, and for the first two months of 2025, it was 24%.
04 ★★ 【Q1 Key City Real Estate Market Bottomed Out and Stabilized】
Supported by a series of favorable policies, the real estate market generally bottomed out and stabilized in Q1. Both new and second-hand home transactions in key cities increased YoY and MoM, with March seeing a local "mini spring" market. Meanwhile, residential land transfer fees increased by 20% YoY, and the average premium rate hit a new high since H2 2021. Core cities saw high enthusiasm for land auctions of premium plots, with several cities setting new highs in transaction floor prices.
Industry insiders expect that in Q2, as various policies are implemented faster, the transaction scale of the new home market may continue a weak recovery trend, with absolute volumes better than Q1 levels. The second-hand home market will continue to grow steadily, with a better recovery than the new home market. Large and medium-sized cities will see more positive signals in housing prices, core cities will maintain high enthusiasm for land auctions, and high-total-price, high-premium land transactions will become normalized. The continued recovery of the land market will also boost buyer confidence, helping the real estate market to stabilize faster in 2025.
★Other Hot Topics★
⭕【Nanjing Introduces "Seven Property Measures"】On March 31, the Nanjing municipal government held a press conference to introduce seven policy measures to promote the stable development of the real estate market. These include the complete removal of restrictions on the transfer of commercial housing. Starting from March 31, 2025, the city-wide sales restrictions will be lifted, and commercial housing can be traded on the market immediately after obtaining the property ownership certificate, effectively meeting residents' various housing replacement needs.
⭕【CISA: January-February Monthly Report on Major Steel-Consuming Industries】In January-February 2025, the construction industry continued to decline, while the manufacturing industry grew steadily among major steel-consuming industries. Key real estate indicators continued to decline YoY, but the decline narrowed. Infrastructure construction investment and power investment maintained growth. The added value of the machinery industry grew, and the export value of mechanical and electrical products increased. Automobile production achieved rapid growth, with NEV production continuing to grow significantly, although the growth rate of automobile exports declined. The production of the three major white goods in the home appliance industry maintained growth, although the growth rate of home appliance exports narrowed. Container production continued to grow.
⭕【Chongqing Iron and Steel: 2024 Loss of 3.196 Billion Yuan】On the evening of March 28, Chongqing Iron and Steel released its 2024 annual report. During the reporting period, the company achieved operating revenue of 27.244 billion yuan, down 30.71% YoY. The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was -3.196 billion yuan, with losses further expanding.
⭕【Maanshan Iron and Steel: 2024 Loss of 4.659 Billion Yuan】Maanshan Iron and Steel disclosed its 2024 annual report. In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 81.817 billion yuan, down 17.30% YoY. The net loss was 4.659 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 1.327 billion yuan in the same period last year.
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