The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the PMI for March was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points MoM, indicating a continued rebound in the manufacturing sector's prosperity level.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the manufacturing PMI in March was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points MoM, indicating a continued rebound in the manufacturing sector's prosperity. The non-manufacturing business activity index in March was 50.8%, up 0.4 percentage points MoM, showing an accelerated pace of expansion in the non-manufacturing sector. The composite PMI output index in March was 51.4%, up 0.3 percentage points MoM, indicating an overall acceleration in the production and business activities of Chinese enterprises.

China's PMI Expansion Accelerated in March

—Senior Statistician Zhao Qinghe from the NBS Service Industry Survey Center Interprets China's PMI for March 2025

On March 31, 2025, the NBS Service Industry Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing released China's PMI. Senior Statistician Zhao Qinghe from the NBS Service Industry Survey Center provided an interpretation.

In March, the impact of the Chinese New Year gradually subsided, and enterprise production and business activities accelerated. The manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index were 50.5%, 50.8%, and 51.4%, respectively, up 0.3, 0.4, and 0.3 percentage points MoM. All three indices continued to rise within the expansion territory, indicating that China's economy maintained an overall expansion.

I. Manufacturing PMI Expanded for Two Consecutive Months

In March, the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5%, with the prosperity level continuing to rebound.

(1) Accelerated Expansion on Both Production and Demand Sides. The production index and new orders index were 52.6% and 51.8%, respectively, up 0.1 and 0.7 percentage points MoM, indicating an accelerated expansion. By industry, the production index and new orders index for industries such as railway, ship, aerospace equipment, and computer, communication, and electronic equipment rose to above 55.0%, reflecting a faster release of production and demand in these industries. In contrast, industries such as wood processing and furniture, and petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing had both indices below the critical point, indicating insufficient supply and demand. Driven by factors such as the rebound in manufacturing production and demand, enterprises showed strong purchase willingness, with the purchasing volume index at 51.8%, maintaining expansion for two consecutive months.

(2) PMI of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises Improved. The PMI of large enterprises was 51.2%, down 1.3 percentage points MoM but still above the critical point. The PMI of medium and small enterprises was 49.9% and 49.6%, respectively, up 0.7 and 3.3 percentage points MoM, indicating varying degrees of rebound in the prosperity level of small and medium-sized enterprises. Among them, the production index and new orders index of small enterprises were 50.8% and 49.8%, respectively, both showing significant improvement MoM.

(3) PMI of Three Key Industries Rose Steadily. The PMI of equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods industries was 52.0%, 52.3%, and 50.0%, respectively, up 1.2, 1.4, and 0.1 percentage points MoM, with the prosperity level rising for two consecutive months. The PMI of high-energy-consuming industries was 49.3%, down 0.5 percentage points MoM.

(4) Price Index Pulled Back. Affected by factors such as recent price fluctuations of bulk commodities like crude oil and iron ore, the main raw material purchase price index and ex-factory price index were 49.8% and 47.9%, respectively, down 1.0 and 0.6 percentage points MoM, indicating an overall decline in the market price level of the manufacturing sector. Among them, the main raw material purchase price index and ex-factory price index of industries such as agricultural and sideline food processing, and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing were above 52.0%, reflecting rising raw material purchase and product sales prices in these industries. In contrast, the two price indices of industries such as petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing, and ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing pulled back MoM.

(5) Market Expectations Were Basically Stable. The production and business activity expectation index was 53.8%, down 0.7 percentage points MoM but remaining in the expansion territory, indicating that manufacturing enterprises remained generally optimistic about recent market development. By industry, the production and business activity expectation index of industries such as railway, ship, aerospace equipment, and electrical machinery and equipment was above 60.0%, reflecting strong confidence in industry development among related enterprises.

II. Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index Expansion Accelerated

In March, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.8%, up 0.4 percentage points MoM, indicating an accelerated pace of expansion in the non-manufacturing sector.

(1) Service Industry Prosperity Level Rebounded. The service industry business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.3 percentage points MoM, indicating an overall improvement in market activity. By industry, production and business activities accelerated in some industries, with the business activity index of industries such as water transport, air transport, postal services, telecommunications, radio, television, and satellite transmission services, and monetary and financial services above 55.0%. As the Chinese New Year effect gradually subsided, the business activity index of industries related to consumer spending, such as catering, ecological protection and public facility management, and cultural, sports, and entertainment, pulled back. From a market expectation perspective, the business activity expectation index was 57.5%, up 0.6 percentage points MoM, remaining in a high prosperity range, indicating that most service industry enterprises continued to have positive expectations for recent market development.

(2) Construction Industry Progress Accelerated. Driven by factors such as warmer weather and accelerated construction projects across regions, the construction industry business activity index continued to rebound, reaching 53.4%, up 0.7 percentage points MoM. From a market expectation perspective, the business activity expectation index rose to 55.3%, entering a high prosperity range, indicating enhanced confidence among construction industry enterprises in recent market development.

III. Composite PMI Output Index Continued to Rise

In March, the composite PMI output index was 51.4%, up 0.3 percentage points MoM, indicating enhanced activity in the production and business activities of Chinese enterprises. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the composite PMI output index, were 52.6% and 50.8%, respectively.