BNP Paribas: Copper Prices May Drop to $8,500 per mt in Q2

Published: Mar 30, 2025 20:11

Save

BNP Paribas: Copper Prices May Drop to $8,500/mt in Q2. On Friday, March 28, BNP Paribas warned that copper prices would decline in the coming months as efforts to ship copper to the US ahead of tariff implementation gradually diminish. Earlier this week, London copper futures climbed above the $10,000/mt mark, while New York copper futures hit a record high, with a significant price spread across the Atlantic.

On Friday, March 28, BNP Paribas warned that copper prices would decline in the coming months as efforts to ship copper to the US ahead of the implementation of US tariffs gradually weakened. Earlier this week, London copper futures climbed above the $10,000/mt mark, while New York copper futures hit a record high, with a significant price spread across the Atlantic. Concerns that efforts to increase copper imports ahead of the proposed tariffs by Trump would leave global supplies at extremely low levels drove copper prices higher. It is estimated that hundreds of thousands of mt of copper are already on their way to the US. However, the copper price rally has lost momentum as the market now predicts that tariffs may be imposed within weeks rather than months. BNP Paribas stated that the earlier arrival of tariffs would leave less room for rerouting goods to the US. The bank expects copper prices to fall to $8,500/mt by the end of Q2 as US demand slows. David Wilson, a commodity strategist at BNP Paribas, said the bank predicts that the implementation of tariffs will end the current chaos in copper prices, allowing the market to focus on the negative demand impact of US trade policy. Wilson stated in the report, "We predict prices will decline in Q2 2025." The investment bank also lowered its forecast for global copper demand growth, predicting a 2.3% increase this year, down from the previous forecast of 3.1%. The copper market is expected to see a supply surplus of 460,000 mt this year, significantly higher than the previously forecasted surplus of 124,000 mt. For more updates on the copper industry chain, you are welcome to attend the CCIE 2025 SMM (20th) Copper Conference and Copper Industry Expo, hosted by SMM, which will be held in Nanchang, Jiangxi from April 22-25, 2025. Over 3,000 industry elites, representatives from upstream and downstream enterprises of the copper industry chain, government officials, industry associations, third-party equipment, logistics and warehousing, and academic experts will gather together. The conference covers the entire industry chain, including mines, smelting, copper processing, trade, recycling, and end-use applications. At the event, more than 100 exhibitors will showcase the latest copper processing and smelting equipment, high-quality raw material suppliers, and new-type copper-based materials, highlighting the innovation and vitality of the copper industry. The conference features a variety of exciting activities: the main forum focuses on global copper market trends, raw material supply, policy impacts, and market directions. Sub-forums delve into industry hot topics such as electrical power transmission and distribution, secondary copper, copper-based new materials, hardware and plumbing, and ESS. During the conference, there will also be a two-day field trip to visit 12 representative enterprises in the copper industry, with a cumulative capacity of 1 million mt. Share cutting-edge technologies and valuable experiences to help upgrade the copper industry chain and promote high-quality industry development. The CCIE 2025 SMM (20th) Copper Conference and Copper Industry Expo will help you grasp industry trends, expand your network, and explore business opportunities! SMM cordially invites you to join us in Nanchang, Jiangxi from April 22-25, to gather in the new era of copper and jointly plan for new development!

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

10 hours ago

Anglo Asian Reports Q2 Production Surge, Maintains Full-Year Guidance

Data released on Wednesday by Anglo Asian, a producer of copper, gold and silver, showed that its copper production in Q2 this year increased 27% QoQ to 5,129 mt, a sharp 87% YoY increase.In the quarter, its gold production rose 3.4% QoQ to 6,272 ounces, up 2.9% YoY; silver production was 50,059 ounces, up 36% YoY.All of the company’s operations are located in Azerbaijan.Anglo Asian stated that it maintains its full-year production guidance, targeting copper production of 20,000-25,000 mt, gold production in the range of 28,000-33,000 ounces, and silver production between 170,000-210,000 ounces.

10 hours ago

First Quantum Considers Selling Stake in Taca Taca Copper Mine Amid Global Supply Rush

First Quantum Minerals is considering selling a minority stake in its Taca Taca copper mine project in Argentina. The move comes as major global mining companies and strategic investors race to secure future copper supply.According to US media reports, the company has initiated this potential sale process.Potential bidders include Japan's Mitsubishi Corp. and Mitsui & Co., among others.

10 hours ago

Oyu Tolgoi Boosts H1 2026 CuEq Output, Rio Tinto Lowers Cost Guidance Amid Mixed Q2 Production

H1 2026 copper equivalent (CuEq) production was up 3% YoY. The Oyu Tolgoi ramp-up plan progressed steadily, with H1 output up 31% YoY.Overall copper production in Q2 was 213,000 mt, down 7% both QoQ and YoY, mainly due to lower output from Rio Tinto’s Kennecott and Escondida mines.Additionally, the 2026 copper C1 net unit cost guidance was lowered to 30-50¢/lb (previously 65-75¢/lb).Aluminum business, the supply chain performed steadily, and bauxite recovered strongly. Q2 aluminum production rose 1% QoQ to 840,000 mt; bauxite production rose 14% QoQ to 15.2 million mt.

10 hours ago