BNP Paribas: Copper Prices May Drop to $8,500 per mt in Q2

On Friday, March 28, BNP Paribas warned that copper prices would decline in the coming months as efforts to ship copper to the US ahead of the implementation of US tariffs gradually weakened. Earlier this week, London copper futures climbed above the $10,000/mt mark, while New York copper futures hit a record high, with a significant price spread across the Atlantic. Concerns that efforts to increase copper imports ahead of the proposed tariffs by Trump would leave global supplies at extremely low levels drove copper prices higher. It is estimated that hundreds of thousands of mt of copper are already on their way to the US. However, the copper price rally has lost momentum as the market now predicts that tariffs may be imposed within weeks rather than months. BNP Paribas stated that the earlier arrival of tariffs would leave less room for rerouting goods to the US. The bank expects copper prices to fall to $8,500/mt by the end of Q2 as US demand slows. David Wilson, a commodity strategist at BNP Paribas, said the bank predicts that the implementation of tariffs will end the current chaos in copper prices, allowing the market to focus on the negative demand impact of US trade policy. Wilson stated in the report, "We predict prices will decline in Q2 2025." The investment bank also lowered its forecast for global copper demand growth, predicting a 2.3% increase this year, down from the previous forecast of 3.1%. The copper market is expected to see a supply surplus of 460,000 mt this year, significantly higher than the previously forecasted surplus of 124,000 mt. For more updates on the copper industry chain, you are welcome to attend the CCIE 2025 SMM (20th) Copper Conference and Copper Industry Expo, hosted by SMM, which will be held in Nanchang, Jiangxi from April 22-25, 2025. Over 3,000 industry elites, representatives from upstream and downstream enterprises of the copper industry chain, government officials, industry associations, third-party equipment, logistics and warehousing, and academic experts will gather together. The conference covers the entire industry chain, including mines, smelting, copper processing, trade, recycling, and end-use applications. At the event, more than 100 exhibitors will showcase the latest copper processing and smelting equipment, high-quality raw material suppliers, and new-type copper-based materials, highlighting the innovation and vitality of the copper industry. The conference features a variety of exciting activities: the main forum focuses on global copper market trends, raw material supply, policy impacts, and market directions. Sub-forums delve into industry hot topics such as electrical power transmission and distribution, secondary copper, copper-based new materials, hardware and plumbing, and ESS. During the conference, there will also be a two-day field trip to visit 12 representative enterprises in the copper industry, with a cumulative capacity of 1 million mt. Share cutting-edge technologies and valuable experiences to help upgrade the copper industry chain and promote high-quality industry development. The CCIE 2025 SMM (20th) Copper Conference and Copper Industry Expo will help you grasp industry trends, expand your network, and explore business opportunities! SMM cordially invites you to join us in Nanchang, Jiangxi from April 22-25, to gather in the new era of copper and jointly plan for new development!