China's Metallurgical Alumina Operating Capacity May Further Decline in April as Production Cuts and Maintenance occur Amid Loss Pressure

SMM March 28 News:

According to data from SMM, China's production of metallurgical-grade alumina increased by 8.86% in March 2025 (31 days) compared to the previous month, and by 11.32% compared to March 2024. By the end of March, the country's total metallurgical-grade alumina capacity stood at approximately 105.02 million metric tons. However, the operating capacity decreased by 1.68% month-on-month, bringing the operating rate to 84.64%.

Throughout March, the operating capacities across China’s domestic alumina refineries showed variability, but overall, national metallurgical alumina operating capacity experienced a month-on-month decline. New capacity additions were observed in Guangxi, where some newly commissioned capacities began production. On the other hand, production cuts occurred as alumina prices continued to fall while bauxite prices remained elevated. The pressure of losses prompted some alumina producers to undertake maintenance, and others to reduce production, leading to a decline in the operating rate. Despite the recent reduction in operating capacity, the supply of alumina still surpasses the domestic demand for aluminum production. Moreover, the declining overseas alumina prices have effectively closed the export window for China’s domestic alumina, except for some established exports to Russia. Consequently, the export demand for alumina has been limited. In the short term, the spot market for alumina is expected to remain relatively loose, with spot prices likely to continue their downward trend.

Forecast for next month: Many alumina refineries have reported scheduled maintenance plans for April, which could further affect operating capacities. Additionally, the originally planned commissioning times for new capacities in Guangxi and Hebei are approaching, but the specific commissioning times are yet to be determined, and SMM will continue to track them. Overall, China’s domestic metallurgical alumina operating capacity in April is anticipated to see a further reduction, with the expected operational capacity estimated at 87.23 million metric tons per year. It is crucial to continue monitoring the changes in alumina capacity, as well as the import and export dynamics of alumina.