Gold Price Surpasses $3,100 to Hit a New High! Precious Metals Futures and Stocks Soar, Silver Price Remains High with Only Essential Buying [SMM News]

SMM March 28 News: As the date of the US reciprocal tariffs on April 2 approaches, market concerns over global trade conflicts triggered by the US tariff plan have intensified again, driving up safe-haven sentiment and boosting the performance of precious metals! Since the beginning of this year, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and gold purchases by multiple central banks have all become important factors driving gold prices to record highs. As of around 13:10 on March 28, COMEX gold rose 0.74% to $3,113.7 per ounce, hitting a new intraday high of $3,117.5 per ounce, with its annual gain now exceeding 17%; COMEX silver rose 0.53% to $35.27 per ounce; SHFE gold rose 1.75% to 721.28 yuan per gram, hitting a new intraday high of 721.76 yuan per gram; SHFE silver rose 1.54% to 8,486 yuan/kg. As of around 13:59 on March 28, silver T+D rose 1.45% to 8,459 yuan/kg. Accompanied by the sharp rise in precious metal futures, the precious metal stock sector also bucked the trend and strengthened. As of around 13:11 on March 28, the precious metal sector led all industries with a gain of 2.13%. In terms of individual stocks: Western Gold rose more than 7%, while Xiaocheng Technology, Chifeng Gold, and Sichuan Gold were among the top gainers. As silver prices approached 8,500 yuan/kg, spot market transactions were sluggish. Click to view precious metal spot prices. Order to view SMM metal spot historical price trends. With the sharp rise in precious metal futures, the spot market also followed suit, with silver spot prices nearing 8,500 yuan/kg! On March 28, the SMM1# silver ex-factory reference average price in the morning was 8,478 yuan/kg, up 160 yuan/kg from the previous trading day, a gain of 1.92%. According to SMM, with the sharp rise in silver prices, spot downstream procurement orders have significantly declined, with only a small amount of just-in-time procurement. As the month-end approaches, some manufacturers have closed their accounts for rest after selling out their cargoes with invoices dated this month, and the spot market is dominated by a wait-and-see sentiment, with sluggish transactions. The market is focusing on the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index to be released later, which may affect market sentiment regarding expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts. In addition, the market is also paying attention to the implementation of the US reciprocal tariffs on April 2, and needs to be alert to the shift in market risk appetite caused by the evolution of geopolitical conflicts. Voices from all sides: Haitong Securities research report pointed out that in an optimistic scenario, gold prices may break through $3,800 per ounce; in a neutral scenario, gold prices may reach around $3,200 per ounce; in a pessimistic scenario, gold prices may pull back to the range of $2,600-2,700 per ounce. Haitong Securities stated that this round of the gold bull market is mainly driven by non-economic factors rather than economic factors. This round of the gold bull market is driven by the decline in trust between countries, the reconstruction of the international order, and the major changes in the global monetary system, bringing a long-term bull market. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end 2025 gold price forecast from $3,100 per ounce to $3,300 per ounce, with the forecast range adjusted to $3,250-3,520 per ounce. Medium-term gold price risks remain skewed to the upside, and in a tail risk scenario, gold prices may exceed $4,200 per ounce by the end of 2025. Large Asian central bank buyers may continue to rapidly purchase gold in the next 3 to 6 years to reach the estimated potential gold reserve target range. China Merchants Bank issued an announcement stating that due to the large fluctuations in gold prices, the following risk items and business adjustments are hereby notified: starting from Thursday, March 27, 2025, the starting point for gold account current purchases and gold account fixed investments will be adjusted from 1 gram/700 yuan to 1 gram/750 yuan. Fixed investment plans (including regular fixed investments and smart fixed investments) that have been successfully set up before the adjustment will continue to be implemented and will not be affected. New fixed investment plans initiated after the adjustment must meet the bank's latest starting point requirements. The bank will continue to monitor changes in the gold market and adjust the above starting point amount in a timely manner. In response to the online rumor that "Chow Tai Fook stores will raise the price of one-price gold jewelry products again," a spokesperson for Chow Tai Fook Jewelry Group told Caijing News Agency on March 24 that based on the changes in gold prices over the past few months, some product prices were adjusted in March, and new price tags will be completed within the month. "The specific increase in this price adjustment varies by product." (Caijing News Agency) Citi Research expects that ETFs and other physical investments will drive gold prices to $3,200 per ounce in the next three months. On March 18, Ningbo Bank issued the "Announcement on Adjusting the Starting Purchase Amount of Precious Metal Accumulation Business (Including Accumulation Plans)" pointing out that due to the recent large fluctuations in domestic gold prices, according to the "Interim Measures for the Management of Gold Accumulation Business" issued by the People's Bank of China, the bank will adjust the starting purchase amount of accumulation gold from 700 yuan to 800 yuan starting from March 19, 2025, while the starting purchase weight in grams will remain unchanged at 1 gram. If the purchase amount is less than 800 yuan, the transaction application will not be successfully submitted. CITIC Securities research report pointed out that since 2025, the divergence between gold stock prices and commodity prices has mainly come from the disturbance of gold company performance and market doubts about the sustainability of gold price increases. CITIC Securities believes that with the concentrated commissioning of incremental projects in 2025, 2025 may become a "big year" for the performance of domestic gold companies. Overall loose liquidity, accelerated ETF inflows, and the long-term narrative of "de-dollarization" may verify the sustainability of gold prices fluctuating at highs. Based on this, we believe that gold stocks in 2025 have a solid logic for catching up. It is recommended to select stocks from the perspective of production growth and performance elasticity. ANZ raised its 0-3 month gold price forecast to $3,100 per ounce and its six-month forecast to $3,200 per ounce. Recommended reading: Silver prices rose sharply, downstream cautious wait-and-see, transactions were sluggish [SMM Daily Review]. To learn more about macro and fundamental news affecting the precious metal market, welcome to participate in the 2025 SMM (6th) Silver Industry Chain Innovation Conference.