The operating rate of leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises in China this week was 62.4%, down 0.1% WoW, showing a characteristic of "stabilization during the peak season with internal divergence." Specifically, the operating rate for primary aluminum alloy rose 0.6 percentage points to 59.0%, as enterprise production schedules became more aligned, supported by stable restocking from downstream, and is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend in the short term. The operating rate for aluminum plate/sheet and strip fell 1 percentage point to 67.0%, impacted by declining curtain wall panel orders and high aluminum prices suppressing purchases, with weakening demand expectations strengthening, and it is anticipated to gradually enter the off-season range. The operating rate for aluminum wire and cable increased 0.4% to 64.4%, supported by the high-voltage sector, but tight shipments and slow cargo pick-up by State Grid limited the rebound potential. The operating rate for aluminum extrusion edged up to 53.7%, with automotive extrusion showing relatively robust growth driven by the year-end push for targets, while construction extrusion remained sluggish and PV extrusion faced production cuts. The operating rate for aluminum foil decreased 0.4 percentage points to 71.9%, with export stockpiling for holidays in packaging foil providing a buffer, but orders for some categories have started to weaken. The operating rate for secondary aluminum producers remained at 58.6%, with order resilience still present, but tight raw material supply, profit pressure, and policy uncertainties continued to constrain production flexibility. Considering the performance on both supply and demand sides, SMM expects the operating rate for the downstream aluminum processing industry to continue its stable trend next week.

11On October 17, the AICE 2025 SMM (14th) Aluminum Industry Annual Conference, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), successfully concluded in Zhengzhou, Henan!

[SMM Aluminum Morning Session Summary: Macro and Fundamentals Create Favorable Resonance, Aluminum Prices Expected to Fluctuate at Highs] During the night session on October 23, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract opened at 21,270 yuan/mt, reached a highest price of 21,310 yuan/mt and a lowest price of 21,235 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 21,265 yuan/mt, up 0.64%. The night session overall showed a pattern of opening higher with a gap and then fluctuating, with the trading center hovering around 21,270 yuan/mt. From a technical perspective, the MA moving averages maintained a bullish alignment (MA5: 21,110 > MA10: 21,018 > MA30: 20,974 > MA60: 20,877), and the MACD 60-minute candlestick showed expanding red bars, maintaining a golden cross. The night session's highest price broke through the previous high of 21,200 yuan/mt. In the short term, prices are expected to hover at highs. Combined with the new high and low points (the monthly low at 20,640 and the high around 21,310), resistance is projected in the 21,400–21,580 range, while support is expected in the 20,730–20,930 range. Caution is advised against the risk of a retreat from highs.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Cast Aluminum Alloy Ingot Experiences Two Consecutive Weeks of Weak Destocking, Shipment Conditions Improve] Currently, the supply of aluminum scrap in the market remains tight, and procurement costs have climbed further during the week. To ensure order fulfillment, enterprises generally purchase at high prices, with low-priced sources being scarce, leading to a continuous rise in overall production costs for enterprises, thereby pushing up quotations. Overall demand remains resilient, coupled with the fact that finished product inventories at manufacturers are currently at low levels and order fulfillment pressure persists, providing some support to market prices. In the short term, supported by rigid cost underpinning and a tight supply-demand balance, ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot prices are expected to hold up well. Subsequent attention should focus on raw material supply, consumption performance, and inventory changes.

[SMM Analysis]Tight Aluminum Scrap Supply Lifts Price Center, Highlighting Resilience in ADC12 Cost Support

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Tightening Supply-Demand Fundamentals and Domestic Aluminum Ingot Destocking Support Aluminum Prices to Hold Up Well]

[SMM Analysis]Imports of Unwrought Aluminum Alloy Rebounded MoM in September 2025 but Remained in a Downward Cycle YoY [SMM Analysis]

September 2025 prebaked anode export volume showed relatively small fluctuations compared to the previous month. Specifically, export orders to Canada, the UAE, Indonesia, and Germany saw significant increases, each rising by over 10,000 mt, with a total increase exceeding 57,600 mt. However, orders to Malaysia, Spain, Iceland, and Saudi Arabia declined substantially, with reductions of over 9,000 mt each and a total decrease of around 48,100 mt. Price-wise, prebaked anode export prices increased in September, with the average export price up 19.40% YoY. Supported by rising raw material prices in the domestic market, prebaked anode prices continued to climb in October. According to the SMM survey, export order prices in October were predominantly higher, with adjustments mainly in the range of $10-20/mt. Overall, current prebaked anode export orders demonstrate ample resilience, and the upward price trend remains solid. With ongoing expansion in overseas aluminum capacity and China's cost advantages in the industry chain, the broad prospects of the overseas market will provide sustained momentum for the growth of China's prebaked anode exports.