Goldman Sachs believes there is a risk that iron ore could fall below $80 per mt.

The Milan Court of Appeal has rejected the request to suspend the shutdown of the hot-end facilities at the former ILVA steelworks in Taranto, leaving October 28 as the deadline for closure. September 16 marks a key operational point for initiating the shutdown process. The shutdown is expected to have a significant impact on both the domestic Italian and wider EU steel markets, with market participants expecting prices to increase as supply availability tightens. A senior Indian steel exporter said the reduction in Italian production would be bullish for regional prices, with the impact likely to extend beyond Italy into the broader European market. The loss of hot-end production could also increase demand for imported slabs for conversion into HRC, as mills look to replace part of the lost steel supply. Higher slab import requirements and increased conversion activity could consequently become an important feature of the Italian market as the shutdown progresses. For Indian exporters, however, the impact on volumes is expected to be minimal in the near term. EU quota constraints continue to limit the ability of Indian mills to increase shipments substantially even if European supply tightens. The more relevant impact for Indian sellers would therefore be through firmer Italian and EU steel prices, rather than a significant increase in export tonnage. Market opinion remains firmly bullish on Italian and EU prices following the shutdown, while imported slab demand and conversion into HRC are expected to increase as the market looks to compensate for reduced domestic production.

[Indonesia] Following a rise in HRC prices of approximately 5 USD/metric ton on Monday, prices are now considered stable and have not changed at all, remaining at around 525–530 USD/metric ton FOB. This is due to a complete lack of demand—as demand remains very sluggish—and possibly because delivery times are still quite long (around December), so prices have remained the same. Furthermore, there are currently no or very few orders coming in. Buyers may attempt to negotiate lower prices, but they remain in a wait-and-see mode, while HRC mills have not taken any action yet. If there is no movement at all—particularly on the demand side—prices will remain stable and unchanged for at least this week.

The Indonesian Anti-Dumping Committee (KADI) initiated an anti-dumping investigation on September 15 into imports of galvanized steel sheet (BJLS) from China, covering HS codes 7210.49.11, 7210.49.17, 7210.49.18, 7210.49.19, 7212.30.12, 7212.30.13, 7212.30.19, 7225.92.90, and 7225.99.90 under Indonesia's 2022 customs tariff book. KADI Chairwoman Frida Adiati said the probe follows a petition from PT Tata Metal Lestari and PT ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel Indonesia on behalf of the domestic industry, with preliminary evidence pointing to rising Chinese imports causing injury to local producers. Between January 1, 2023 and December 31, 2025, Indonesia imported 2,562,407 mt of BJLS globally, of which 2,075,801 mt (about 81%) came from China. The investigation will run for up to 12 months, extendable to 18 months if needed.