【SMM Analysis】Production Resumptions In Tin Solder Industry Underperformed In February, Industry Chain Recovery Showed Divergent Trends

1. The rebound in the operating rate in February fell short of expectations. According to the latest data, the operating rate of tin solder samples from domestic sample enterprises rebounded to 59.08% in February 2025, an improvement from 53.26% in January but below previous market expectations. This discrepancy stems from two main factors: Delayed resumption of work: After the Chinese New Year holiday, although smelters gradually resumed production (e.g., enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi), downstream end-user industries such as electronic manufacturing and auto parts were slow to restart, leading to a lag in order transmission. For instance, lead-acid battery enterprises resumed work on the eighth day of the lunar new year, but restocking demand fell short of expectations, dragging down solder procurement volume. Raw material supply disruptions: The delayed resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State (with incremental output expected only in H2) and the shutdown of the Bisie tin mine in the DRC due to conflict (accounting for 6% of global capacity) led to a continued decline in tin concentrate imports. Domestic tin ingot social inventory increased by 21.95% MoM in February, with raw material shortages and high inventory pressure coexisting, dampening enterprises' enthusiasm for production. 2. Demand side: Significant internal divergence, with structural highlights emerging. Weakness in traditional sectors: The electronics manufacturing industry was affected by the downturn in the consumer electronics cycle, with solder order volumes declining by 20%-30% MoM in January-February. Some enterprises reported that order recovery only reached 70% of pre-holiday levels. The home appliance industry saw limited stimulus from the "trade-in" policy, with white goods production schedule growth concentrated in top-tier enterprises, while small and medium-sized solder factories did not see significant order increases. Support from emerging sectors: NEV and PV demand bucked the trend. NEV retail sales increased by 41% YoY in February, driving demand for automotive electronic solder. PV welding strip enterprises saw a rapid rebound in operating rates, with top-tier enterprises' March production schedules already recovering to peak season levels. Additionally, AI computing power demand spurred restocking in the semiconductor industry, with some solder enterprises achieving capacity utilization rates above 80%. 3. March outlook: The operating rate is expected to jump to 73.01%, but the sustainability of the recovery remains uncertain. Recovery in production days: Actual production days in March increased by 50% compared to February, coupled with potential semiconductor industry subsidy policies and NEV trade-in details expected to be released in Q2, stimulating early stockpiling demand. Click to view the SMM metal industry chain database.