[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Tomorrow, Shanghai is expected to remain in a continuous inventory buildup trend. Today, Shanghai inventory increased by 17,400 mt WoW from January 12, mainly driven by warrants. It is anticipated that tomorrow, Friday, the premiums and discounts structure will be maintained based on the SHFE copper 2602 contract quotation.

In North China today, spot prices of #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were at a discount of 300-100 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 200 yuan/mt, up 120 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Transaction prices ranged from 101,800 to 102,580 yuan/mt, with an average of 102,190 yuan/mt, down 1,265 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: LME copper opened at $13,176.5/mt overnight, fluctuating considerably at the beginning of the session and falling to $13,140/mt, then continuing to fluctuate considerably. Approaching the end of the session, the center of copper prices gradually moved upward, finally closing at $13,300/mt, reaching the intraday high with a gain of 1.09%. Trading volume reached 33,800 lots, and open interest stood at 324,000 lots, a decrease of 670 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bear position reduction. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2603 opened at 104,350 yuan/mt overnight, hitting a high of 104,660 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session. Subsequently, the center of copper prices moved straight downward, falling to 103,290 yuan/mt, then fluctuating considerably and finally closing at 103,660 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.49%. Trading volume reached 143,000 lots, and open interest stood at 241,000 lots, a decrease of 553 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bull position reduction.

[SMM Analysis:China's December copper concentrate import data guide the future supply-demand balance of copper concentrate in China.]According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 2.704 million dmt of copper ore and its concentrates in December 2025, an increase of 7% month-on-month and 7.2% year-on-year. From January to December, China’s cumulative imports of cu cons reached 30.365 million dmt, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 7.8%. Throughout 2025, imports of copper concentrates repeatedly hit new historical highs. In April 2025, China imported 2.924 million dmt of cu cons, marking the highest monthly import volume on record. In August 2025, imports reached 2.759 million dmt, the second highest in history. In December 2025, imports amounted to 2.704 million dmt, ranking as the third highest monthly import volume on record.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Tomorrow is expected to be the last trading day for the SHFE copper 2601 contract. During the day, some suppliers have already offered discounts of 200 yuan/mt against the next-month contract. It is anticipated that tomorrow's quotations against the next-month contract will start within the range of discounts of 200-100 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are expected to remain strong tomorrow. However, spot premiums and discounts will be constrained by the widening price spread between futures contracts, leading suppliers to reduce their willingness to sell. Overall prices are expected to continue holding at high levels.