Bullish and Bearish Factors Intertwined, Tin Prices Consolidate at High Levels [Institutional Commentary]

On Tuesday, the most-traded SHFE tin SN2504 contract fluctuated rangebound during the day and fluctuated upward at night, while LME tin closed higher. Spot market: It was heard that small brands were at a discount of 200 to a premium of 100 yuan/mt for April, Yun-branded products were at a premium of 100-400 yuan/mt for April, and Yunxi was at a premium of 400-600 yuan/mt for April. According to a draft document [Wajingzi 2025-01] released by the Central Economic Planning Committee of Wa State on March 23, 2025, seen by ITA, the Manxiang mining area can orderly resume production after completing relevant procedures in accordance with the provisions of the document [Wajingzi 2023-08].

Overall, expectations for the resumption of tin ore production in Myanmar have strengthened, and full resumption is expected in H2, but the Bisie mine has temporarily ceased operations. If the shutdown lasts for a long time, global raw material supply will remain tight. Supply-side concerns support tin prices, but actual consumption is still difficult to sustain the current high prices. With both bullish and bearish factors at play, tin prices have retreated risk premiums and maintained high-level consolidation, awaiting more geopolitical news.