The uncertainty of Trump's tariffs increased, and copper prices continued to rise overnight. [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

Published: Mar 26, 2025 08:51

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SMM March 26: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,998/mt, touched a low of $9,989/mt, and rose to a high of $10,130/mt before closing at $10,094.5/mt. The overall trend initially fluctuated at low levels, then surged significantly, and pulled back after reaching the high. The increase was 1.61%, with a trading volume of 18,300 lots and open interest of 301,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2505 contract opened at 81,960 yuan/mt, touched a low of 81,910 yuan/mt, and rose to a high of 82,820 yuan/mt before closing at 82,780 yuan/mt. The overall trend initially showed a downward movement, then rebounded significantly and continued to rise. The increase was 1.3%, with a trading volume of 60,800 lots and open interest of 254,000 lots. Macro front, as Trump considered a "two-step" strategy for new tariff policies, market concerns over trade policy uncertainty intensified, coupled with a decline in the US consumer confidence index, hitting the lowest level since February 2021, the US dollar index closed lower, benefiting copper prices. Supply side, as some warrants were unwound, suppliers sold off, leading to an increase in spot supply of copper cathode, putting pressure on spot premiums. Demand side, although downstream purchases increased slightly after the small decline in premiums, the overall operating rate of downstream industries remained low, resulting in mediocre performance in the spot market. Price side, despite favorable macro factors, insufficient fundamental demand limited the upside, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound today.

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