PV aluminum extrusion: PV extrusion manufacturers benefited from active procurement demand from downstream component producers this week, with the industry's operating rate fluctuating at highs. The SMM survey found that top-tier enterprises' production lines were basically in full production, and the finished product turnover cycle significantly improved to a 7-10 working day range. It is noteworthy that, in anticipation of the upcoming "531" annual grid connection deadline, some top-tier enterprises have proactively adjusted their production strategies, conducting forward inventory preparation for mainstream model products to mitigate supply chain volatility risks.
Material prices: During the period (2025.3.17-2025.3.20), the center of spot aluminum average price moved upward, with the SMM A00 weekly average price at 20,760 yuan/mt, down 0.38% from the previous week. Overall, although the first half of the week saw a negative macro front due to overseas trade protectionism and slowing growth, last night's US Fed March interest rate meeting announced maintaining the benchmark interest rate unchanged, in line with market expectations, and signaled a dovish stance on initiating an interest rate cut within the year, boosting market risk appetite and supporting a rebound in aluminum prices. Domestically, the favourable macro front remained, with the state focusing on increasing policy efforts and stimulating positive interaction and synergy between market forces to maximize policy effects; three departments used ultra-long-term special treasury funds to stimulate the renewal of new energy public transport vehicles. Fundamentals side, the aluminum industry chain was still predominantly bullish, with the seasonal destocking trend of "Golden March, Silver April" becoming more pronounced, and end-use consumption such as NEVs steadily growing. The SMM believes that mid-week accelerated destocking and policy support will maintain short-term prices fluctuating upward, with close attention to changes in US tariff policies and the actual release of downstream demand. Whether SHFE aluminum can stabilize above the 21,000 yuan/mt mark next week still requires further upward momentum. The most-traded SHFE aluminum 2505 contract is expected to run between 20,600-21,400 yuan/mt, and LME aluminum is expected to run between $2,640-2,760/mt.
