Zinc Prices Fluctuate at Highs Amid Overseas Expectations for Production Cuts [SMM Zinc Morning Comment]

Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $2,956/mt. In early trading, LME zinc fluctuated around the daily average line, briefly dipping to $2,955/mt. During the European trading session, bulls increased positions, driving LME zinc to fluctuate upward and reach a high of $2,994.5/mt. Subsequently, profit-taking by bulls caused LME zinc's center to return near the daily average line, ultimately closing higher at $2,985.5/mt, up by $27/mt or 0.91%. Trading volume decreased to 12,310 lots, while open interest increased by 5,729 lots to 223,000 lots. Last Friday, LME zinc recorded a four-day winning streak, with the daily candlestick center moving upward, supported by various moving averages below. The US dollar index fluctuated at lows last Friday, providing support for base metal prices, while the US March consumer confidence index declined, leading LME zinc to jump initially and then pull back.

Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2505 contract opened at 24,215 yuan/mt. In early trading, shorts entered the market, pressuring SHFE zinc to move downward, with its center shifting near the daily average line. By the end of trading, the center further declined to a low of 24,075 yuan/mt before returning near the daily average line for consolidation, ultimately closing higher at 24,140 yuan/mt, up by 10 yuan/mt or 0.04%. Trading volume decreased to 59,831 lots, while open interest increased by 3,747 lots to 120,000 lots. Last Friday, SHFE zinc recorded a bearish candlestick, though the MACD bullish bar expanded. On the macro side, domestic consumption policies provided support, coupled with expectations for production cuts at overseas smelters on the fundamentals side, leading zinc prices to fluctuate at highs.