[SMM Analysis] Surging Raw Material Prices Drive Sentiment to Stand Firm on Quotes: Can the Stability of the Ternary Supply Chain Be Maintained?

This week, the prices of 5-series, 6-series, and 8-series ternary cathode materials surged significantly due to the rise in cobalt sulphate and nickel sulphate prices. Sellers in the market showed a clear sentiment of raising prices, and some precursor and cathode enterprises have stopped quoting. Although spot order quotes from certain enterprises were far above the cost increase margin, transactions remained limited in the absence of market demand. Despite fluctuations in the supply chain, some leading cathode material enterprises, benefiting from stable precursor supply, have not yet adjusted the details and coefficients of their long-term contract agreements with downstream clients. Price changes were mainly concentrated in spot orders and new orders. For other enterprises needing to procure precursor raw materials, production costs have risen sharply in the short term.

In settlements with downstream battery manufacturers, some cathode enterprises are at a disadvantage in negotiating agreements and may face the risk of further losses in 2025. Consequently, amid the recent raw material price hikes, some ternary material enterprises have adopted the stance of "preferring to halt production and incur losses rather than deliver at low prices," raising their demands on coefficients and details within agreements. However, as of mid-March, a large number of order signings have yet to be finalized. With the general rise in sulphate prices, precursor procurement costs have increased, and ternary material enterprises have shown a clear tendency to stand firm on quotes and hold back sales. It is expected that ternary material prices will continue to rise further later this month.