Aluminum Billet Inventory Pulled Back Below 300,000 mt, Double-Digit Processing Fees Reappear in the Market [SMM Aluminum Billet Weekly Review]

Published: Mar 13, 2025 15:21
This week, US Fed inflation data came in below expectations, reigniting market expectations for an interest rate cut. Coupled with tariff fluctuations during the week, the macro front continued to release upward momentum. Domestically, the turning point in aluminum ingot inventory destocking was consolidated, and the fundamentals remained robust. During the week, the SHFE aluminum center broke above the 21,000 yuan/mt threshold. Although downstream orders maintained an increasing pace during the "Golden March and Silver April" period, the high aluminum prices suppressed current trading, and aluminum billet processing fees remained at low levels. SHFE aluminum fluctuated at high levels near the round-number threshold during the week, with downstream buyers showing strong aversion to high prices and focusing mainly on just-in-time procurement. Suppliers sold at high levels, and low-priced circulating supply was abundant in the market, leading to weaker actual trading volume. In the Foshan market, trading faced significant resistance, with aluminum billet prices quoted at 70/120 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from last Thursday. In the Wuxi market, trading showed signs of weakening, with processing fees quoted at 100/150 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from last Thursday. In the Nanchang region, aluminum billet processing fees fluctuated rangebound, with downstream buying sentiment showing no improvement. Processing fees were quoted at 100/150 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt.
SMM March 13 News:
Regarding aluminum billet inventory, according to the latest SMM data, as of March 13, 2025, domestic aluminum billet social inventory stood at 297,500 mt, down 6,500 mt WoW from last Thursday and down 5,900 mt mid-week compared to Monday. After the first post-holiday destocking at the end of February, domestic aluminum billet inventory showed slight fluctuations. However, after further verification over the past one to two weeks, the post-holiday destocking turning point for aluminum billets has been fully confirmed, and short-term inventory has returned below 300,000 mt.

On the outflows from warehouses, last week's outflows reached 61,100 mt (up 5,000 mt WoW), repeatedly hitting new highs for the year. Despite the disturbance caused by the loosening of aluminum billet processing fees stimulating spot circulation, the marginal strengthening of end-user restocking momentum has been validated.

As the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" progresses, coupled with the steady increase in downstream operating rates, the market focus has shifted to the pace of order growth realization during the peak season and its traction effect on the destocking phase.

This week, US Fed inflation data came in below expectations, reigniting market expectations for an interest rate cut. Combined with tariff fluctuations during the week, the macro front continues to release upward momentum. The domestic aluminum ingot destocking turning point has been consolidated, fundamentals remain stable, and SHFE aluminum prices broke above the 21,000 yuan/mt threshold during the week.

Although downstream orders maintained a growth pace during the "Golden March and Silver April" period, high aluminum prices suppressed current trading. Aluminum billet processing fees remained at low levels. SHFE aluminum prices fluctuated at high levels near the round-number threshold during the week, with downstream buyers showing significant aversion to high prices and focusing on just-in-time procurement. Suppliers actively sold at high levels, and low-priced circulating cargoes were abundant in the market, leading to weakened actual trading volume.

In the Foshan market, trading faced significant resistance during the week, with aluminum billet prices quoted at 70/120 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt WoW from last Thursday. In the Wuxi market, trading showed signs of weakening, with processing fees quoted at 100/150 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt WoW from last Thursday. In the Nanchang region, aluminum billet processing fees fluctuated rangebound, with no improvement in downstream buying sentiment. Processing fees were quoted at 100/150 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt.

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