[SMM Analysis] Inventory Levels of ESS Battery Cells Slightly Increased in February, May Decrease with Subsequent Demand Growth

All-solid-state batteries have entered an intensive GWh pilot production period, with 2027–2030 as the key window for small-batch vehicle installation. Planned capacity is expected to exceed 1,119 GWh by 2035, but the utilization rate from 2026 to 2030 will be only 1%–15%, indicating a severe demand mismatch, with volume ramp-up only gradually beginning after 2032.

Today, SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate spot prices continued to edge up slightly from the previous trading day. The lithium carbonate 2701 contract opened higher today at 132,500 yuan/mt. After the open, bears briefly held the advantage, and prices consolidated lower, hitting a low of 130,200 yuan/mt. Subsequently, bargain hunting emerged at lows, and prices gradually rebounded. Around midday, bulls concentrated their efforts, and prices shot up rapidly to the day's high of 135,300 yuan/mt. In the afternoon, prices consolidated at highs, fluctuating repeatedly around 134,000 yuan/mt. Near the close, prices pulled back slightly, ultimately closing up 2.53% at 134,400 yuan/mt. Open interest was basically flat (up slightly by 84 lots). In the spot market, downstream buyers continued to purchase as needed at lows, but as prices drifted higher, buying enthusiasm turned more cautious. Upstream lithium chemical plants maintained their stance of holding prices firm and holding back from selling for spot orders. Overall, both market inquiries and actual transaction pace slowed down. On the news and sentiment front, the continued destocking of warrants, combined with confidence in short-term demand resilience, shifted sentiment from earlier pessimism to a slightly more positive tone, driving prices to drift higher.