[SMM Steel Import and Export Analysis] Cumulative Steel Exports in January-February Remain High YoY, External Pressure May Lead to a Decline in March?

On March 7, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported a total of 16.97 million mt of steel from January to February 2025, up 25.87% YoY.

From January to February, China imported a total of 1.05 million mt of steel, down 7.2% YoY.

· Steel Exports Maintained High Growth YoY in January-February

In the first two months, China's total steel exports increased by 25.8% YoY! According to SMM's January HRC export scheduling data, export volume in January rose 12.9% MoM from December. At the beginning of 2025, the US announced increased tariffs on steel and aluminum products from all countries, creating significant export uncertainties. As a result, the market maintained an active order-taking stance before the crisis fully unfolded. In February, affected by the Chinese New Year, shipping schedules were delayed, leading to a reduction in export data. However, total exports for January-February still maintained a high YoY growth rate!

· Steel Imports Continued Low Levels in January-February

On the import side, China imported a total of 1.05 million mt of steel from January to February, down 7.2% YoY, maintaining a net export status. In the first two months, China's net steel exports reached 15.92 million mt, up 28.93% YoY.

· Short-Term Outlook for Steel Exports

According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI in February 2025 was 50%, flat MoM, indicating continued stable recovery in global manufacturing. Based on China's manufacturing PMI data, the new export orders index for February was 48.6%, up 2.2 percentage points MoM, reflecting an improvement in China's current overseas order-taking situation.

Data monitored by the World Steel Association showed that in January 2025, crude steel production in 71 countries included in the association's statistics totaled 151.4 million mt, down 4.4% YoY. This was mainly due to a 5.6% YoY decline in China's production, while production in regions outside China totaled 69.5 million mt, down 2.0% YoY.

As of March 7, 2025, export FOB prices for HRC in India, Turkey, and the CIS were $493/mt, $525/mt, and $485/mt, respectively, while China's HRC export FOB price was $467/mt. Currently, China's HRC export price is $26/mt, $58/mt, and $18/mt lower than those of other countries, respectively, with a price advantage of +4%, +9.43%, and +125% MoM from January.

According to SMM's latest steel mill export scheduling data, planned export volume for February is expected to decrease by 4.7% compared to actual export volume in January. Although overseas supply and demand conditions have improved, providing favorable conditions for China's exports, Vietnam is set to impose a temporary anti-dumping duty of 19.38-27.83% on Chinese HRC starting March 8. Vietnam is China's largest steel export destination, and sanctions on Chinese steel products from countries like South Korea, India, and the US are increasing. Additionally, SMM's survey indicates that some export traders are facing bottlenecks in taking orders. Therefore, SMM expects China's steel export volume in March to decline compared to February.