[SMM Hot Topic]South Korea Initiates Anti-Dumping on Chinese Hot-Rolled Steel Coils—How Significant Is the Impact?

• Background

February 28, 2025
The Trade Commission of the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy of South Korea (Trade Commission) announced on the 28th that it has decided to initiate an anti-dumping investigation on hot-rolled carbon steel plates and hot-rolled alloy steel plates originating from China and Japan. The Trade Commission will publish the details in the official gazette on March 4 and conduct a three-month preliminary investigation before launching a formal investigation lasting three to five months.

March 4, 2025
The South Korean government officially announced on March 4, 2025, the initiation of an anti-dumping investigation into hot-rolled steel coils (HRC) from China and Japan. The investigation was initiated following a petition by Hyundai Steel, alleging that HRC products from China and Japan were being dumped, causing harm to South Korea's domestic steel industry. According to the announcement by the Korea Trade Commission (KTC), the preliminary investigation is expected to be completed by the end of March, after which the substantive investigation phase will begin. The overall investigation period may be extended by two months. The investigation covers hot-rolled products of carbon steel or alloy steel, involving multiple HS codes (HSK 7208, 7211, 7225, 7226, etc.). The scope of the investigation excludes hot-rolled medium-thickness plates, coated or plated products, and stainless steel products.

The anti-dumping case initiated by South Korea against China involves the following product types and data: in 2024, the total export volume of the products involved to South Korea was 3.1307 million mt. Among them, the major product categories include other hot-rolled ordinary steel coils with a thickness of 4.75mm ≤ thickness ≤ 10mm; other hot-rolled ordinary steel coils with a thickness of 3mm ≤ thickness < 4.75mm; and other hot-rolled iron or non-alloy steel coils with a thickness of 1.5mm ≤ thickness < 3mm.

• South Korea Is the Second Largest Destination for China's Steel Exports, Accounting for 5.74% of China's HRC Exports

According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, in 2024, China exported a total of 7.759 million mt of steel to South Korea, accounting for 7% of China's total steel exports, making it the second largest destination for China's steel exports after Vietnam.

According to data from China's General Administration of Customs, China exported a total of 1.6079 million mt of HRC to South Korea in 2024, while the total HRC exports from China amounted to 27.99 million mt, accounting for 5.74% of China's total HRC exports. The total volume of HRC involved in this anti-dumping case was 1.5632 million mt, representing 97.22% of China's HRC exports to South Korea, essentially covering all HRC products exported from China to South Korea.

Figure 1 - Total Export Volume of China's HRC and Its Share to South Korea

Data Source: SMM, General Administration of Customs of China

• The risks facing China's steel exports are increasing.

Overall, the products involved in South Korea's anti-dumping case accounted for 5.74% of China's total HRC exports, a moderate proportion. However, in recent years, China has faced an increasing number of anti-dumping cases in the steel sector. Notably, on February 21, 2025, Vietnam decided to impose a provisional anti-dumping duty of 19.38% to 27.83% on China's HRC. As Vietnam is China's largest export destination for steel and HRC, this undoubtedly creates significant pressure on domestic steel exports. Additionally, Indonesia decided on December 31, 2024, to continue imposing anti-dumping duties of 0-20% on China's HRC. By the end of February, the steel products and corresponding countries involved in China's anti-dumping cases had an export volume exceeding 30 million mt in 2024. If these anti-dumping cases are fully implemented, the outlook for China's steel exports will become even more challenging.