In 2025Q1 , the recovery of global lead concentrate supply has been slow, particularly as production in major mining countries failed to meet expectations. Meanwhile, the resumption of refined lead smelter after technological transformation and maintenance further exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance.Mar-25, the MOM in lead concentrate supply lagged behind that of refined lead, and the supply gap for lead concentrates is expected to widen.
On the supply side of lead concentrates, multiple factors imposed constraints. On one hand, stricter environmental protection policies slowed down mining progress at numerous small mines. On the other hand, in newly commissioned lead-zinc projects aimed at expanding capacity, the growth in lead concentrates was far less than that of zinc concentrates. Due to the scarcity of new silver-lead mining projects, the strengthening of gold and silver prices led holders of already scarce silver-lead resources to offer lower RCs or further reduce Pb50 and Pb60 TC. The insufficient supply of lead concentrates drove up raw material procurement costs for smelters. According to SMM, despite a significant decline in operating rates at domestic smelters in February, their raw material inventories were moderate enough to sustain March production.
In stark contrast to lead concentrate supply, the supply of refined lead from primary lead smelters stabilized and recovered in March. Large smelters in Hunan, Yunnan, and Jiangxi completed their production cuts and maintenance in February, with an expected increase of approximately 65,000 mt in metal content on a MoM basis. The mild increase in lead concentrate supply, combined with insufficient replenishment of recycled materials and the anticipated production increase in primary lead smelting in 2025Q2, makes Pb50 and Pb60 TC prices more likely to fall than rise. Some small-scale smelters have already delayed shutdowns due to tight raw material supply, and further restrictions on raw material supply may limit the release of additional refined lead capacity in the future.
