China's Total Bauxite Supply May Increase With Short-Term Bauxite Prices Likely Under Pressure [SMM Analysis].

SMM March 9 News:

According to data from March 7, the weekly total bauxite port arrivals at Chinese ports reached 3.889 million mt, a decrease of 681,400 mt compared to the previous week. The weekly total bauxite port departures from Guinea's main ports were 3.2182 million mt, down by 898,500 mt from the previous week. The weekly total bauxite port departures from Australia's main ports were 836,200 mt, a decrease of 39,200 mt compared to the previous week.

Overall, the average weekly port departures of bauxite from Guinea's main ports were 3.19 million mt per week in January (5 weeks) and 3.47 million mt per week in February (4 weeks), showing an overall increasing trend in Guinea's bauxite shipments. It is expected that Guinea's bauxite imports may show an increasing trend from February to April compared to earlier periods. Australia's average weekly port departures of bauxite were 930,000 mt/week in December (4 weeks), 700,000 mt per week in January (5 weeks), and 590,000 mt per week in February, with a significant decline in port departures due to the rainy season. However, in the past two weeks, Australia's bauxite port departures exceeded 800,000 mt per week, rebounding from the previous weekly levels of around 400,000-700,000 mt. The impact of the rainy season has been relatively small in the past two weeks, and Australia's bauxite imports to China in March may increase.

SMM Comments: In the short term, the growth in Guinea's bauxite shipments may boost domestic supply, potentially exerting downward pressure on bauxite prices. This is compounded by the existing high cost pressure on alumina, together suggesting a potential decrease in bauxite prices in the near future.

(The above information is based on market data collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not replace independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.)

Data Source: SMM Click on the SMM Industry Database for more information

(Mingxin Guo 021-51595800)