[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Under Pressure amid Volatility, LME Tin Awaits Macro Breakthrough] Prominent Mine-End Contradictions: The progress of tin ore production resumptions in Myanmar's Wa region has been slow. Coupled with Thailand's ban on Myanmar's transit transportation, the import channels for tin ore have been blocked. It is estimated that domestic tin ore imports will decrease by 500-1,000 mt in June. Persistent Production Cuts at the Smelting End: Raw material inventories at smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi are generally insufficient for 30 days. Some enterprises have undergone maintenance or implemented gradient production cuts, leading to a tightening of the refined tin supply margin.

This week, the ferrous metals series saw a strong rally, effectively breaking through the previous support level. At the beginning of the week, there was increased disruption in the raw material sector. First, the impact of environmental protection-driven production restrictions on coking coal weakened, leading to a decline in raw material prices. Subsequently, production restrictions were imposed on sinter in Tangshan. Although the actual impact was limited, it had a significant psychological effect, causing the ferrous metals series to rebound slightly. Mid-week, the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission meeting issued signals on addressing cut-throat competition, raising expectations for supply-side reforms. As a result, the ferrous metals series generally rose, becoming the main logic driving the market trend in the second half of the week. In the spot market, despite the strong performance of futures, end-users continued to purchase as needed. However, the spot-futures price spread narrowed, and there was an increase in demand for closing out reverse arbitrage positions and entering into forward arbitrage positions...

From the overall data analysis, at the end of June, the rigid demand in the energy storage sector remained stable, supported by domestic and overseas demand due to mid-year activities and various policies. The automobile sales boom from earlier auto shows in June has since subsided. The new energy vehicle penetration rate has stabilized, but the consumer market is lackluster. While terminal demand is expected to increase somewhat, the growth is likely to be limited. In terms of market transactions, activity remained low through the end of June. Some second-life battery manufacturers maintained minimal inventory, adhering to a just-in-time procurement strategy. Looking ahead to July, after the mid-year period, demand for both automotive and energy storage markets is expected to decline further.

Last week's announcement of import and export restrictions in the Congo (DRC) has led to a continuous increase in cobalt sulfate prices. However, due to insufficient short-term demand support, the price increase has been relatively limited. Nickel sulfate prices have remained essentially stable, while lithium carbonate prices have shown a slight rebound and are fluctuating.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Continues to Fluctuate Rangebound at High Levels, Spot Market Remains Sluggish] Morning Session Trends: Today, SHFE tin continued to fluctuate rangebound at high levels. It opened at 269,010 yuan/mt (down slightly by 0.11% from the previous night session), reaching a high of 271,300 yuan/mt and a low of 267,000 yuan/mt during the session. It closed at 267,770 yuan/mt in the midday session, down by 0.46%, with open interest remaining stable at 31,100 lots.

[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum: Off-season Aluminum Scrap Market Stalls at High Levels, Cost Pressure for Secondary Aluminum Alloy Remains Unsolved] Overall, with no substantial improvement in demand, prices encounter resistance in rising, but the logic of cost support remains. It is expected that secondary aluminum alloy prices will maintain a rangebound fluctuation in the short term.

[SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary: Market Focuses on US Non-Farm Payrolls Data and the Period When Tariff Exemptions Expire on July 9; SHFE Tin Prices Remain High and Consolidate] Intraday Trend: On July 3, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) opened at 269,000 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 269,980 yuan/mt and a low of 267,830 yuan/mt during the session. It closed at 268,420 yuan/mt, down by 880 yuan (a decline of 0.33%), with a settlement price of 269,010 yuan/mt. Trading Volume and Open Interest: Trading volume stood at 57,264 lots, while open interest was 30,442 lots, a decrease of 923 lots from the previous day, indicating a rise in risk-averse sentiment among investors.