Market Sentiment Shows Signs of Recovery, Prices May Fluctuate Upward in the Short Term [NPI Daily Review]

From October 1, 2026, EU importers must declare and substantiate where imported steel was originally melted and poured, typically through a mill test certificate containing the melt-and-pour country and heat number. The rules do not alter existing quota volumes or restrict market access from specific countries, and a one-year transition period allows alternative documentation where MTCs are unavailable. However, from October 2027, the Commission will incorporate collected melt-and-pour data into country-specific quota allocation decisions, with a further assessment by June 2028 on whether the melt-and-pour country should itself become a basis for quota access. The rules carry significant implications for Asia's stainless steel supply chains, where cross-border processing is widespread. Indonesia exported approximately 330,000 tonnes of stainless steel slabs to Italy in 2025, with EU-bound shipments already exceeding 123,000 tonnes this year; as slabs currently fall outside trade measure scope, the route of importing Indonesian semi-finished slabs for local processing may face greater scrutiny as melt-and-pour traceability deepens.

Indonesia has confirmed the implementation details of Article 18A of Government Regulation (PP) No. 21/2026, which took effect for export customs declarations (PPE) from September 1, 2026. The government identified 64 mining exporters, or around 12% of 537 exporters reviewed, as currently meeting the eligibility criteria. Eligible exporters must be incorporated as Indonesian PTs, operate in the mining sector, and have at least one shareholder from the designated countries, the US, China, Hong Kong, Australia or Canada, holding at least a 10% stake. The eligible list will be reviewed monthly. The government has also designated 15 foreign-exchange banks for the placement of DHE SDA under Article 18A, comprising five state-owned banks and 10 non-state-owned banks. This allows eligible exporters to place the required DHE SDA with designated non-state-owned banks, providing greater flexibility in managing export proceeds.

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 03 Sep , 2026