Divergence in Domestic and International Inventory Trends; Short-Term Lead Prices Are Still Constrained by Raw Materials and Consumption [SMM Weekly Lead Market Forecast]

게시됨: Feb 28, 2025 16:15

저장

SMM, February 28: Next week, key macroeconomic data will include China's February Caixin Manufacturing PMI, the US February ISM Manufacturing PMI, the US February ADP employment figures (in 10,000s), the US February unemployment rate, and the US February seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls. Additionally, the US Fed will release the Beige Book on economic conditions. Meanwhile, the US-China trade friction remains prominent, with the US threatening to impose additional tariffs, which will continue to impact the commodity markets.

For LME lead, LME lead inventory declined during the week, and the LME lead 0-3 spot discount narrowed, closing at -$17.74/mt as of February 27. The trading center of LME lead slightly moved upward. At the same time, expectations for the US imposing additional tariffs on goods from multiple countries have risen, and uncertainties in international trade have suppressed the performance of base metals, limiting the upside potential for lead prices. LME lead is expected to trade between $1,985/mt and $2,045/mt next week.

For domestic SHFE lead, entering March, the impact of the Chinese New Year holiday has subsided, and the overall supply and demand in the lead market are expected to increase. From a weekly marginal perspective, the supply side is expected to see slight growth, while the demand side remains stable, with visible lead ingot inventory still having room for accumulation. On the other hand, raw material supply remains tight, and due to expectations for production increases on the supply side, prices of raw materials such as scrap remain relatively firm. The stalemate between bullish and bearish factors is unlikely to break in the short term. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade between 16,950 yuan/mt and 17,300 yuan/mt next week.

Spot price forecast: 16,750-17,000 yuan/mt. Lead consumption remains moderate, with downstream enterprises maintaining a produce-based-on-sales model, leading to relatively scattered procurement of lead ingots. On the supply side, lead smelters are resuming production and advancing new capacity projects, with primary and secondary lead likely to trade at discounts. However, due to raw material cost factors, the room for widening spot discounts is limited.

데이터 출처 설명: 공개 정보를 제외한 모든 데이터는 SMM이 공개 정보, 시장 커뮤니케이션 및 SMM 내부 데이터베이스 모델을 기반으로 가공한 것입니다. 본 자료는 참고용이며 의사결정 권고를 구성하지 않습니다.

문의 사항이 있거나 자세한 정보를 원하시면 아래로 연락해 주시기 바랍니다: lemonzhao@smm.cn

리서치 보고서 열람 방법에 대한 자세한 내용은 아래로 문의하시기 바랍니다:service.en@smm.cn

관련 뉴스

11시간 전

지지와 저항이 공존, SHFE 납 16,000 위에서 횡보 [납 선물 단평]

지지와 저항이 공존, SHFE 납 16,000 위에서 횡보 [납 선물 단평]

11시간 전

12시간 전

데이터: 상하이선물거래소(SHFE), 다롄상품거래소(DCE) 시장 동향 (9월 3일)

데이터: 상하이선물거래소(SHFE), 다롄상품거래소(DCE) 시장 동향 (9월 3일)

다음 표는 2026년 9월 3일 SHFE와 DCE의 철금속 및 비철금속 동향을 보여줍니다.

12시간 전

13시간 전

중국 서북부의 대형 2차 납 제련소, 9월 15일 가동 재개

중국 서북부의 대형 2차 납 제련소, 9월 15일 가동 재개

[재생납 생산 업데이트] SMM 조사에 따르면, 중국 서북부의 대형 재생납 제련소가 9월 15일 조업을 재개할 것으로 예상된다. 생산 재개 규모와 생산 확대 속도는 실제 생산량에 따라 달라질 것으로 보인다.

13시간 전