[SMM Analysis] Diverse Changes in Macro Information: Will Silver Rise or Fall?

I. Tariffs
January 20, 2025: Trump announced a tariff plan on his first day in office.
January 30, 2025: The implementation timeline for tariffs on Canada and Mexico was clarified—Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada starting February 1, with consideration to include oil in the tariff scope. On February 3, Trump postponed the tariff's effective date to March 4, while maintaining a 10% tariff rate on Canadian energy products.
February 1, 2025: A 10% tariff on Chinese goods was implemented, covering approximately $500 billion worth of goods, raising the average tariff level to 25%.
February 28, 2025: The final effective date for tariffs on Canada and Mexico was confirmed. Trump announced that the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico would take effect as scheduled on March 4, while threatening to implement "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2 to further pressure trading partners.
Trump repeatedly cited three reasons for the tariffs: First, as part of his tax reduction plan, tariffs would serve as an important source of funding. Second, by increasing the cost of imported finished goods, the tariffs aim to force manufacturing to return to the US. Third, tariffs are linked to other issues to strengthen negotiation leverage.
II. Geopolitics
Yesterday, the US Treasury Secretary completed an economic framework agreement with Ukraine, while tensions in the Russia-Ukraine region remain high. Conflicts in the Middle East also persist.
However, as this information has been traded for a month in February, the bull market has started to weaken. Today, amid a strong rise in the US dollar, silver prices began to decline accordingly. Since silver is a resource-scarce metal, it remains bullish in the long term and under macro hedging conditions. However, due to the lack of new information to stimulate the market, the bullish sentiment is gradually being digested, and prices are expected to enter a consolidation phase for further decline.

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