What Is the Future of US Secondary Copper Raw Material Exports in 2025? [SMM Analysis]

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       According to SMM, in December 2024, the US exported 83,100 mt of secondary copper raw material, down 4.29% MoM, up 4.71% YoY. For the full year of 2024, the US cumulatively exported 959,300 mt of secondary copper raw material, up 8.98% YoY.

Data Source: Compiled by SMM

       By export destination, China remained the largest importer of US secondary copper raw material in 2024. Throughout the year, the US exported a total of 396,700 mt of secondary copper raw material to China, a significant YoY increase of 21.16%, accounting for 41.4% of total exports. Following China were Canada and Thailand, which received 103,600 mt and 94,600 mt of US secondary copper raw material, respectively, with YoY increases of 8.13% and 40.77%, accounting for 10.8% and 9.9%, respectively. Notably, Thailand, which entered the top 10 destinations for US secondary copper raw material exports in 2022, has seen its import volume rise steadily year by year, demonstrating robust growth momentum.

Data Source: Compiled by SMM

       Additionally, in 2024, US exports of secondary copper raw material to Thailand ranged between 4,500 mt and 9,000 mt from January to October, reaching 10,300 mt in November and climbing further to 13,300 mt in December. The annual export volume showed a significant increase compared to 2023. Amid the current complex trade policies and market environment, the US secondary copper raw material export market remains highly uncertain, warranting close attention to future developments.

       Another noteworthy point is that in December 2024, influenced by expectations of Trump tariffs, many domestic traders suspended purchases of US secondary copper raw material. Export data showed a decline in export volume for the month. Entering 2025, the impact of Trump tariffs continued to intensify. On February 10, local time, US President Trump signed an executive order announcing a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum products, which will officially take effect on March 12 this year. There is widespread market concern about whether tariffs will also be imposed on copper. As a result, most domestic traders and companies remain cautious about purchasing US secondary copper raw material, refraining from making hasty decisions. It is expected that in Q1 2025, US exports of secondary copper raw material to China will see a certain degree of decline.

       Reviewing China's secondary copper raw material imports in 2024, H1 saw a significant YoY increase in import volume due to a sharp rise in copper prices, coupled with policy and mine-related news. In H2, as copper prices pulled back, import volumes decreased slightly but remained at relatively high levels compared to the same period. Looking ahead to 2025, as the issue of tight copper concentrate raw material supply continues to worsen, many large domestic enterprises are turning their attention to overseas secondary copper sources. Even under loss-making conditions, their enthusiasm for importing secondary copper remains undiminished. Both domestic and overseas markets show increasing demand for secondary copper, particularly in the domestic market, where the supply-demand gap persists and may further widen. However, whether secondary copper raw material imports will continue to rise in 2025 remains uncertain. Even if growth continues, the increase is expected to be smaller than in 2024.