Chinese New Year and Copper Prices Exert Dual Pressure, Copper Cathode Rod Production Remains Low, January-February [SMM Analysis]

Published: Feb 11, 2025 11:36

Save

According to SMM data, the total production of copper cathode rods in China reached 716,000 mt in January 2025, down 181,700 mt MoM. The operating rate stood at 51.99%, down 16.38 percentage points MoM and 11.9 percentage points YoY. In east China, the total production of copper rods was 478,900 mt, with an operating rate of 58.47%, down 9.16 percentage points YoY. In south China, the total production of copper rods was 106,300 mt, with an operating rate of 46.64%, down 16.76 percentage points YoY. (For production and operating rate data in other regions, please refer to the SMM database.)

According to SMM data, the national copper cathode rod production in January 2025 totaled 716,000 mt, down 181,700 mt MoM, with an operating rate of 51.99%, a decrease of 16.38 percentage points MoM and 11.9 percentage points YoY. Among them, the total copper rod production in east China was 478,900 mt, with an operating rate of 58.47%, down 9.16 percentage points YoY; in south China, the total copper rod production was 106,300 mt, with an operating rate of 46.64%, down 16.76 percentage points YoY. (For production and operating rate data in other regions, please refer to the SMM database.)

In January, the festive atmosphere of the Chinese New Year gradually intensified, while the center of copper prices rose, suppressing downstream buying interest. According to SMM data, the average price of SMM #1 copper cathode in January was 75,023.61 yuan/mt, up 581.56 yuan/mt MoM. The price spread between copper cathode rods and secondary copper rods also widened by 412 yuan/mt MoM. Consumption gradually weakened towards the end of January, entering the Chinese New Year holiday, during which copper cathode rod production generally halted, leading to a MoM decline in production. From the overall operating rate perspective, the operating rate in January 2025 decreased by 11.9 percentage points YoY but increased by 11.97 percentage points MoM compared to February 2024 on a lunar calendar basis. The main factor for this discrepancy was the different time spans of the Chinese New Year. Looking at the average operating rate for January-February 2025, it is expected to be 52.78%, a slight YoY increase of 0.82 percentage points.

The Year-End Effect in February Is Yet to Fade, and Production Is Expected to Rebound Slightly

In February, the holiday atmosphere gradually dissipates, and most copper rod enterprises resume production before the Lantern Festival. However, the first ten days of February still fall within the Chinese New Year holiday, making the actual number of production days similar to January. Therefore, the national copper cathode rod production in February is expected to reach 737,700 mt, with an operating rate of 53.56%, remaining at a relatively low level. From the consumption side, due to the post-holiday surge in copper prices, end-use consumption is recovering slowly, and new orders are currently sluggish. If copper prices do not show a significant decline, some restocking demand may be released after the Lantern Festival at the earliest.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

15 hours ago

"Premier Li Qiang Leads State Council Meeting on Enhancing Effective Investment, Boosting Economic Growth"

Premier Li Qiang presided over an executive meeting of the State Council to study policy measures for promoting effective investment. The meeting noted that promoting effective investment plays an important role in stabilizing economic growth and strengthening momentum for development. It is necessary to innovate and improve policy measures, and intensify efforts to enhance the efficiency of utilizing funds such as central budget investments, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, local government special bonds, and new-type policy-based financial instruments. In conjunction with formulating and implementing the 15th Five-Year Plan

15 hours ago

"Guided by Xi Jinping Thought, Implement 20th CPC Congress Spirit, Apply New Development Philosophy...

Guided by Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, we will thoroughly implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the plenary sessions of the Party’s 20th Central Committee, fully and faithfully apply the new development philosophy, strengthen top-level design, build computing power interconnection nodes oriented toward national hub periods, major strategic regions, and key industries, establish a system of computing power interconnection nodes, improve the efficiency and service level of public computing power resources, and promote high-quality development of computing power.

15 hours ago

Indirect Iran-US Nuclear Talks in Muscat Show Progress, Omani FM Mediates Tense but Efficient Discussions

After intensive indirect consultations, the new round of nuclear talks between Iran and the US in Muscat, the capital of Oman, has achieved phased progress. It is reported that during this round of talks, the Iranian and US delegations did not meet directly. Instead, Omani Foreign Minister Badr acted as an intermediary, conveying a series of core proposals, strategic concerns, and policy positions to the other side. The atmosphere at the talks was tense yet efficient. According to preliminary on-site assessments, although both sides continue to negotiate over specific terms, they have reached a consensus on the key objective of "continuing dialogue."

15 hours ago