Market Reaction Was Mediocre, Copper Prices Rose Slightly Overnight [SMM Morning Comment on Copper]

SMM, February 11: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,408/mt, briefly dipped to $9,406.5/mt at the start, then fluctuated upward within a wide range, reaching a high of $9,467/mt near the session's end, and finally closed at $9,453/mt, up 0.14%. Trading volume reached 19,000 lots, and open interest stood at 288,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2503 contract opened at 77,410 yuan/mt, initially edged up slightly before trending lower, hitting a low of 77,330 yuan/mt. It then fluctuated upward to a high during the session, maintained rangebound fluctuations near the end, reaching a high of 77,650 yuan/mt, and slightly pulled back to close at 77,570 yuan/mt, up 0.22%. Trading volume reached 22,000 lots, and open interest stood at 181,000 lots. Macro side, the US dollar index hovered at highs as Trump pledged to impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, limiting copper price gains. Tonight, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to attend a hearing and deliver the semi-annual monetary policy testimony, which could be a key factor influencing expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts in the near term. Fundamentally, copper prices remain strong, with relatively limited spot supply, while the spot market trading sentiment slightly improved WoW. As of Monday, February 10, SMM data showed copper inventories in major regions across China increased by 31,700 mt compared to last Thursday, reaching 304,800 mt. Total inventories rose by 139,000 mt compared to pre-holiday levels of 165,800 mt. Among them, Shanghai inventories were up by 71,100 mt, Guangdong by 37,400 mt, and Jiangsu by 29,000 mt compared to pre-holiday levels. In terms of prices, Trump's tariff policy continues to significantly disrupt the market, while expectations for the US Fed to hold rates steady in March have strengthened. However, based on current market reactions, copper prices are expected to see relatively small fluctuations today.