The operating rates of copper pipe & tube producers pulled back MoM in January and continued to weaken slightly in February due to the holiday impact [SMM Analysis].

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       In January, the operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises was 70.94%

       According to SMM data, the operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises in January was 70.94%, down 12 percentage points MoM and down 0.55 percentage points YoY. By the end of January, as the Chinese New Year holiday approached, the operating rates of large, medium, and small enterprises showed significant divergence. The operating rate of large copper pipe & tube enterprises was 77.09%, with almost no shutdowns during the holiday. Production was flexibly adjusted across bases according to orders. Although some production lines were reduced, sufficient orders from air conditioner manufacturers and support from export orders led to an overall improvement in orders compared to the previous year. Medium-sized copper pipe & tube enterprises had holiday durations ranging from 0 to 6 days, resulting in uneven operating rates. Among them, enterprises supported by export orders and orders from large manufacturers had operating rates close to 70%, but weak orders in the installation pipe market dragged down overall performance. Small copper pipe & tube enterprises had an operating rate of only 56.39%, with weak orders in the hardware and sanitary ware market at the beginning of the year, while military orders remained stable. Although some brass pipes were supported by export orders, the overall base was relatively small, contributing little to the operating rate.

       In January, the raw material inventory ratio of copper pipe & tube enterprises was 5.00%

       In January, the raw material inventory ratio of copper pipe & tube enterprises was 5.00%, up 1.18 percentage points MoM. By the end of January, as the Chinese New Year holiday began, large enterprises needed to maintain production during the holiday and prepared a certain level of raw material inventory. Additionally, the copper pipe & tube production in January declined MoM, leading to an overall increase in the raw material inventory ratio.

       The operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises in February 2025 is expected to be 69.82%

       According to SMM data, the operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises in February 2025 is expected to be 69.82%, down 1.12 percentage points MoM and up 22.19 percentage points YoY. The Chinese New Year holiday in 2025 spanned from late January to early February, and the resumption of work by large enterprises drove the overall operating rate. In contrast, the Chinese New Year holiday in 2024 occupied nearly half of February, resulting in a significant YoY increase in the operating rate for February 2025 due to the difference in holiday timing. According to ChinaIOL data, the planned production of household air conditioners in February reached 15.93 million units, up 35.6% YoY, which correspondingly boosted the YoY growth in the operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises.

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