Downstream Rigid Demand Supports SiMn Alloy Market, Operating Weakly Yet Firmly [SMM Analysis]

Published: Feb 8, 2025 10:04

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[SMM Analysis: Downstream Just-in-Time Procurement Supports SiMn Alloy Market Fluctuating Upward] Futures market: In January, the most-traded contract fluctuated around 6,494 yuan/mt. The highest settlement price at 10:15 reached 6,866 yuan/mt, up 7.28% MoM from last month's 6,400 yuan/mt, while the lowest was 6,032 yuan/mt. Overall, SiMn alloy futures prices fluctuated upward with significant volatility throughout the month. Spot market: Currently, there remains a certain cost difference between north and south China. In January, influenced by the upward fluctuation of manganese ore prices, SiMn alloy production costs increased. Additionally, electricity prices in south China rose significantly, further driving up production costs. Overall, north China still holds cost advantages. In terms of supply, production in north China slightly declined due to equipment maintenance by certain manufacturers. In south China, with high production costs, most idle SiMn alloy plants have no production resumption plans, resulting in limited actual output growth. Overall, both northern and southern SiMn alloy plants experienced production cuts. Demand side: Downstream steel mills showed some winter stockpiling demand for SiMn alloy, primarily making just-in-time procurement. Overall, supported by costs and downstream just-in-time procurement, SiMn alloy spot prices fluctuated upward. Additionally, according to SMM, entering February, with miners' strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes, manganese ore spot prices are expected to fluctuate upward. Supported by stronger cost pressures, SiMn alloy prices are also expected to fluctuate upward in the future.

Futures market: In January, the most-traded contract fluctuated around 6,494 yuan/mt. The highest settlement price at 10:15 reached 6,866 yuan/mt, up 7.28% MoM from last month's 6,400 yuan/mt, while the lowest was 6,032 yuan/mt. The futures market experienced significant volatility throughout the month, with SiMn alloy futures prices fluctuating upward.

Spot market: Currently, there remains a certain cost difference between north and south China. In January, influenced by the upward fluctuation of manganese ore prices, SiMn alloy production costs increased. Additionally, electricity prices in south China rose significantly, further driving up SiMn alloy production costs. Overall, north China still holds cost advantages. In terms of supply, production in north China slightly declined due to equipment maintenance by certain manufacturers. In south China, high production costs have led most idled SiMn alloy plants to refrain from production resumption plans, resulting in limited actual output growth. Overall, both northern and southern SiMn alloy plants experienced production cuts.

Demand side: Downstream steel mills showed limited winter stockpiling demand for SiMn alloy, primarily making just-in-time procurement. Overall, supported by costs and downstream just-in-time procurement, SiMn alloy spot prices fluctuated upward.

Additionally, according to SMM, entering February, manganese ore spot prices are expected to fluctuate upward due to miners' strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes. With stronger cost support, SiMn alloy prices are also expected to fluctuate upward in the future.

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