HRC Futures Fluctuate Upward Amid Macro, Cost, and Demand Dynamics

Today, the most-traded HRC futures contract continued to fluctuate upward, closing at 3,449 with a 0.43% increase, while spot prices narrowed down by 10 yuan/mt. In the first week after the holiday, HRC prices initially declined before rebounding. In the spot market, mainstream participants gradually resumed work this week, but downstream sentiment remained cautious after the holiday, and demand recovery still requires time, leading to average overall market transactions.

Looking ahead, on the macro side, Trump signed an executive order imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese exports to the US. On the cost side, iron ore prices are expected to strengthen due to disruptions from overseas shipment news, while coke prices are expected to decline, offsetting each other and keeping HRC costs temporarily stable. On the demand side, a new cold wave is approaching, putting end-use demand into a verification phase, with a neutral impact on prices for now.

In summary, with positive expectations for the Two Sessions on the macro side and cost support still in place, the downside for HRC prices is limited. Next week, the most-traded HRC futures contract is likely to fluctuate rangebound within the 3,380-3,530 range.