End-Use Demand Remains Limited, Domestic Downstream Prices Temporarily Stable [SMM Weekly Review]

Polysilicon: This week, the mainstream transaction prices for N-type recharging polysilicon were 39-45 yuan/kg, while the mainstream transaction prices for N-type dense polysilicon were 38-42 yuan/kg. Post-holiday transactions tended to be mediocre, and a new round of transactions has yet to begin. Polysilicon manufacturers are currently facing inventory buildup pressure. However, some top-tier enterprises, based on industry and their own conditions, plan to increase prices in the short-term in a new round of quotations. Downstream players are adopting a wait-and-see approach regarding upstream quotations. From the end-user perspective, demand has not effectively recovered, and crystal pulling plants have sufficient inventory reserves. It is expected that achieving a comprehensive price increase in actual transactions will face certain resistance.

Silicon Wafers: This week, domestic N-type 18Xmm silicon wafers were priced at 1.18-1.18 yuan/piece, N-type 210R wafers at 1.3-1.35 yuan/piece, and N-type 210mm silicon wafers at 1.55-1.55 yuan/piece. Overall, silicon wafer prices remained stable this week, with the market maintaining stability after the Chinese New Year. Downstream resistance to high prices persists. Compared to February's battery operating rates, silicon wafer surplus is evident, posing significant inventory buildup risks. Short-term prices are expected to weaken.

Solar Cells: This week, solar cell prices remained stable. Topcon 183 solar cells (efficiency of 25% and above) were priced at approximately 0.285-0.295 yuan/W; Topcon 210RN solar cells at 0.28-0.285 yuan/W; and Topcon 210 solar cells at 0.285-0.295 yuan/W. No new orders have been placed post-holiday, and current deliveries are based on pre-holiday orders. Specialized battery manufacturers maintained normal production during the holiday, while integrated manufacturers resumed production at their battery facilities relatively later. Currently, battery inventory has increased by 18% compared to pre-holiday levels, and battery production is expected to gradually increase in mid-to-late February.

Modules: In the current module market, the mainstream transaction prices for domestic centralized projects of N-type 182mm modules are 0.64-0.69 yuan/W, and for N-type 210mm modules are 0.65-0.7 yuan/W. Driven by upstream raw material price increases, module prices are expected to rise post-holiday. Overseas, the export prices of TOPCON modules to the European market increased slightly by 5%-10%, and local module inventory pressure has eased.

Production: Demand has entered the off-season in Q1, and module enterprises are resuming operations slowly. Most enterprises plan to reduce operating rates in February, producing based on demand. A few enterprises have increased production schedules due to order deliveries.

End-User: Overall, Q1 remains the off-season for domestic demand. This week's orders are expected to increase slightly with procurement for centralized projects. The implementation of new distributed policies is expected to drive a rush for installations in commercial and industrial projects from March-May.

EVA and Films: This week, PV-grade EVA resin quotations were 11,000-12,000 yuan/mt, while foam-grade and cable-grade EVA prices remained stable. Spot cargoes in the market are relatively tight, leading to an upward shift in the overall transaction center of the domestic market. For EVA films, film enterprises are gradually resuming operations post-holiday. Prices from top-tier enterprises remain stable, with mainstream transaction prices at 12,600-12,800 yuan/mt. Due to cost-side price increases, film prices are also expected to rise.

PV Glass: This week, PV glass quotations remained stable. As of now, the mainstream quotation for 2.0mm single-layer coated glass is 12 yuan/m², and for 3.2mm single-layer coated glass is 19.5 yuan/m². Post-holiday, module enterprises are gradually resuming operations, but the procurement side has not fully entered formal processes. During the holiday, domestic glass kilns maintained normal production, while module demand decreased. Glass inventory in January showed a trend of initial decline followed by an increase. Although apparent inventory levels at glass enterprises are relatively high, as module enterprises enter the procurement period post-holiday, transaction volumes are expected to grow rapidly due to anticipated price increases for glass. Top-tier module enterprises have varying degrees of stockpiling plans. February transaction volumes are expected to significantly exceed module production schedules. Glass destocking is expected to be strong, but mainstream transaction prices are likely to remain stable.

High-Purity Quartz Sand: This week, domestic high-purity quartz sand prices remained stable. Current market quotations are as follows: inner-layer sand at 65,000-75,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand at 35,000-45,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand at 19,000-25,000 yuan/mt. Prices remained stable. During the holiday, both supply and demand for high-purity quartz sand were weak. On the supply side, top-tier enterprises continued to reduce operating rates, with some production lines already shut down. Future operations are expected to decline slightly due to raw material constraints. On the demand side, recent silicon wafer demand has slightly increased, but current consumption mainly relies on crucible inventory, providing limited stimulation for quartz sand demand. After February, new negotiations for imported sand are expected to signal price declines, making it difficult for domestic sand prices to rise. Prices are expected to remain stable in the near term.

Backsheet: This week, PV backsheet market prices remained stable at low levels. White CPC backsheets with double fluorine coating were priced at approximately 4.8-5.3 yuan/m², while transparent CPC backsheets with double fluorine coating were priced at approximately 11.3-12.3 yuan/m². Post-Chinese New Year, backsheet market order demand remains weak, with no significant signs of recovery. Most backsheet manufacturers hold a pessimistic outlook for February orders, with many reporting that February backsheet production and sales may fall short of January levels. According to the latest market feedback, January's actual backsheet production slightly exceeded expectations, primarily due to a significant increase in overseas orders. Some top-tier backsheet manufacturers saw a higher proportion of overseas orders in January, leading to an overall production and sales increase of nearly 2 million m², driving up total domestic backsheet production in January. However, the average operating rate in the industry remains low, around 10%, and the overall backsheet market situation remains pessimistic.

》View the SMM PV Industry Chain Database