Copper Prices Surge After Chinese New Year, Secondary Copper Raw Material Supply Remains Tight at Yards, Full Recovery Expected After Lantern Festival [SMM Weekly Review on Secondary Copper Raw Material]

SMM, February 7:

After the Chinese New Year holiday, copper prices unexpectedly surged significantly, rising by 1,500 yuan/mt within a week, while the price of Guangdong bare bright copper also increased by 1,300 yuan/mt. Although cargo yards in various regions began resuming quotations, many dismantling factories and recycling points had not fully resumed operations. According to interviewed companies, traditionally, most cargo yards will not fully resume normal purchasing and shipping until after the Lantern Festival (February 12). As a result, large cargo yards had relatively small purchase volumes this week, despite the noticeable rise in copper prices on Thursday and Friday, with sales mainly coming from pre-holiday inventory. In anticipation of continued copper price increases, suppliers were also reluctant to release large volumes.

Regarding overseas imports, due to US President Trump's announcement of a 10% tariff on China, domestic importers had already ceased purchases in early December 2024. Based on shipping schedules, most US cargoes had arrived at ports before the Chinese New Year, leading to reduced US cargo availability after the holiday. This further tightened the supply of secondary copper raw materials at cargo yards in the Ningbo Zhenhai area. Interviewed companies indicated that most traders would fully resume post-holiday operations after the Lantern Festival.

This week, the CIF quotation for #1 copper scrap was COMEX 3M copper contract price minus 38-42¢/lb, while the CIF quotation for #2 copper scrap was COMEX 3M copper contract price minus 47-52¢/lb. The CIF quotation for US brass scrap had an LME coefficient of 67-67.5%, with a fixed price of $6,050-6,100/mt (limited transactions). The CIF quotation for non-US Cu98.5% wire nodules had an LME coefficient of 96.25-96.5%, and the CIF quotation for non-US bare bright copper had an LME coefficient of 98.5-99% LME.

The supply of secondary copper raw materials was slightly slow. SMM expects that after the Lantern Festival next week, when domestic and overseas suppliers fully resume normal operations, the supply in the secondary copper raw material market will rebound, but the state of demand exceeding supply will remain unchanged.

》Subscribe to view SMM historical spot metal prices

》Click to view the SMM copper industry chain database