Operating Rates Declined YoY During Chinese New Year, Destocking Paused in Anticipation of Spring【SMM Copper Cathode Rod Weekly Review】

Published: Feb 7, 2025 10:38

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Copper Cathode Rod: During the Chinese New Year holiday, the weekly operating rate of major domestic copper cathode rod enterprises (1.24-1.30) decreased by 40.53 percentage points WoW to 14.64%. In the first week after the holiday (1.31-2.6), the weekly operating rate slightly increased by 3.11 percentage points to 17.75%. On a YoY basis, considering the inconsistency of the Chinese New Year cycle and comparing the average operating rate over a two-week holiday period, the average operating rate during the 2024 Chinese New Year (2.2-2.15, from the 23rd day of the 12th lunar month to the 6th day of the new lunar year) was 20.52%, while during the 2025 Chinese New Year (1.24-2.6, from the 25th day of the 12th lunar month to the 9th day of the new lunar year), it was 16.19%, down 4.33 percentage points YoY. Demand side, downstream cargo pick-up was significantly weaker than the same period last year. Copper cathode rod enterprises extended their holiday period YoY, destocking pace slowed YoY, and both pre-holiday stocking and post-holiday replenishment by downstream sectors were weaker than the same period last year. From specific inventory data, in the first week after the holiday, the finished product inventories of major domestic copper cathode rod plants decreased by 8.05% WoW during the holiday to 76,500 mt, up 34.92% YoY compared to the first week after the 2024 holiday. Meanwhile, raw material inventories increased by 7.14% WoW to 33,750 mt. This indicates that the destocking performance of copper cathode rod enterprises this year was significantly weaker than in 2024. Looking ahead, the weekly operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises is expected to gradually recover from the impact of the Chinese New Year holiday next week (2.7-2.13), with the operating rate rising to 62.64%, up 44.89 percentage points WoW and up 7.32 percentage points YoY (mainly due to differences in the Chinese New Year cycle).

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