[SMM Steel Market Morning News] The New Round of Oil Price Adjustment Stalled & Simandou Iron Ore Project Expected to Have a Production of 60 Million mt This Year

Macro★

01★★

New Round of Oil Price Adjustment Suspended; No Adjustment This Round

At 24:00 on February 6, a new round of refined oil price adjustment window opened. According to monitoring by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) Price Monitoring Center, international oil prices fluctuated downward during this refined oil price adjustment period (January 16–February 5).

Based on the current domestic refined oil pricing mechanism, the adjustment amount per mt is less than 50 yuan. Therefore, gasoline and diesel prices remain unchanged this time, and the unadjusted amount will be carried forward or offset in the next adjustment.

Industry and Downstream★

01★★★  

Steel Exports From 32 Chinese Ports Increased 15% MoM in January

According to the latest SMM steel shipping data, total steel exports from 32 domestic ports reached 13.1027 million mt in January, up 14.54% MoM and 53.93% YoY.

Specifically, Tianjin New Port exported 3.6161 million mt, up 7.84% MoM; Caofeidian Port exported 868,400 mt, up 5.41% MoM; Jingtang Port exported 411,200 mt, down 33.21% MoM; Luojing Port exported 1.6001 million mt, up 32.19% MoM. Bayuquan exported 772,700 mt, up 34.59% MoM.

02 ★★ 

Global Iron Ore Shipments and Port Arrivals Declined Significantly in January

SMM reported that global iron ore shipments totaled 124.87 million mt in January 2025, down 14.8% MoM. Among the major declines, Brazil saw a drop of over 20% MoM, Australia fell 13.7% MoM, and South Africa's total shipments decreased slightly by 12.1% MoM. Compared to the same period last year, all countries except South Africa experienced declines.

China's iron ore port arrivals in January 2025 totaled 107.62 million mt, down 5.5% MoM and 4.7% YoY. Among them, the two major ports in Shandong, as well as Fangchenggang and Bayuquan, saw slight increases in port arrivals, while other ports experienced declines.

03★★★

Simandou Iron Ore Project Expected to Produce 60 Million mt This Year

Guinea's Minister of Mines and Geology, Bouna Sylla, recently revealed that the northern and southern blocks of the Simandou iron ore project are expected to achieve an annual production of 30 million mt each in 2025, totaling 60 million mt. Additionally, Bouna Sylla expects the Simandou iron ore production to double by 2026, with annual production from the northern and southern blocks increasing to 60 million mt each, reaching a total of 120 million mt.

04★★★

[SMM Construction Steel Inventory] Chinese New Year Inventory Buildup Below Expectations; Market Sentiment Cautious Amid Weak Demand

During the Chinese New Year, total construction steel inventory increased significantly but remained relatively low YoY. Rebar inventory rose 47.62% MoM compared to pre-holiday levels, while wire rod inventory increased 58.4% MoM.

This week, total rebar inventory reached 6.6117 million mt, up 2.1327 million mt or 47.62% MoM (previous value +13.22%), and down 3.2043 million mt or 32.64% YoY (previous value -45.82%).

In-plant rebar inventory this week was 2.2125 million mt, up 849,300 mt or 62.3% MoM (previous value +9.12%), and down 875,900 mt or 28.36% YoY (previous value -42%). During the Chinese New Year, blast furnace steel mills, except for some with annual maintenance, maintained normal production, leading to a rapid buildup of in-plant inventory.

This week, rebar social inventory reached 4.3992 million mt, up 1.2834 million mt or 41.19% MoM (previous value +15.11%), and down 2.3284 million mt or 34.61% YoY (previous value -47.33%). During the holiday, the market was largely inactive, and social inventory increased significantly due to normal steel mill deliveries.

05★★★

[SMM HRC Inventory] First Week After the Holiday! HRC Production Fluctuates at High Levels & Social Inventory Builds Up Significantly

This week, total HRC inventory reached 5.2011 million mt, up 845,100 mt MoM.

According to SMM statistics, HRC social inventory across 86 warehouses nationwide (large sample) was 3.8517 million mt this week, up 756,800 mt or 24.45% MoM from the last week before the holiday, and down 25.03% YoY. In the first week after the holiday, social inventory increased nationwide, with larger buildups in east China, south China, and north China. According to SMM statistics, HRC social inventory across 86 warehouses nationwide (large sample) was 3.8517 million mt this week, up 756,800 mt or 24.45% MoM from the last week before the holiday, and down 25.03% YoY.

★Other Hot Topics★

⭕[Heavy Rain Causes Six Deaths in Northeast Brazil]Recently, heavy rain disasters occurred in Recife, the capital of Pernambuco State in northeast Brazil, and surrounding areas. As of the morning of the 6th local time, various heavy rain disasters had caused six deaths, flooding roads, destroying houses, disrupting traffic, and leaving over 100 people homeless. The Recife city government stated that on the 6th, a landslide triggered by heavy rain in the Passarinho community in the northern part of the city caused two deaths. The landslide also damaged over 400 houses in the area, which are currently undergoing damage assessment. Local authorities have initiated emergency measures.

⭕[India May See First Interest Rate Cut in Nearly Five Years]On February 5, some financial institutions predicted that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) might lower its benchmark interest rate this week. If implemented, this would be the RBI's first interest rate cut in nearly five years. Taimur Baig, Chief Economist at DBS Bank in Singapore, predicted that the RBI is prepared to cut interest rates by about 25 basis points to 6.25% on February 7. Goldman Sachs also predicted that the RBI might cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week and shift its monetary policy stance from "neutral" to "rate cut." Additionally, Goldman Sachs forecasted another 25 basis point rate cut by the RBI in April.

⭕[Zhengzhou Warns of Risks in "Zero Down Payment" and "Down Payment Loans" for Home Purchases]The Zhengzhou Housing Security and Real Estate Administration Bureau issued a warning about the risks of "zero down payment" and "down payment loans" for home purchases. The bureau stated that real estate developers and intermediaries must conduct business in compliance with laws and regulations. Violators engaging in "zero down payment" or "down payment loans" for selling properties or providing related services will be dealt with strictly and, in severe cases, referred to relevant authorities for legal action. Their violations will also be recorded in credit files and disclosed to the public. Homebuyers are advised to remain cautious about the allure of "zero down payment" or "down payment loans" and to purchase homes within their financial means.

⭕The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark rate from 4.75% to 4.5%, in line with market expectations. This marks the third rate cut in the current cycle.

⭕[Weak Demand Prompts Hyundai to Suspend Some EV Production in South Korea]Due to weak domestic demand in South Korea, Hyundai has decided to adjust production and will suspend operations of the No. 12 production line at its Ulsan Plant 1 from February 24 to 28. This line produces the Ioniq 5 and Kona EVs.

⭕[Ansteel Phase II Step 1 Project Entrance Looper Casting Completed]On January 26, the Ansteel electromagnetic new materials Phase II Step 1 project achieved a new milestone—the concrete casting of the entrance looper area in the magnesium oxide coating equipment foundation zone was completed as scheduled, marking a successful conclusion to the project before the holiday.
The looper is a critical piece of equipment in rolling lines, with its control system's stability and precision being key to improving production output and quality. The project’s entrance looper measures 97 meters in length, 8.2 meters in width, and 7.25 meters in height, classified as a super-large and high-risk deep foundation pit project. Challenges included deep excavation, large structural volume, numerous embedded components, extended winter concrete curing periods, significant resource input, extensive on-site cross-operations, and strict local environmental protection-related controls. The project team demonstrated a spirit of hard work and collaboration, conducting multiple discussions to optimize construction plans based on site conditions, ensuring the smooth completion of excavation tasks. During construction, meticulous operations were carried out in strict accordance with the plans, with rigorous checks at every stage, from rebar binding and concrete slump to curing and insulation after casting. The team upheld the principle that "everyone is a quality inspector, and everyone is a safety officer," showcasing the company's professional expertise and sense of responsibility through their united efforts.

⭕Shougang Group: Off to a Strong Start in the "First Lap."At the beginning of the new year, Shougang Group's steel sector units thoroughly implemented the spirit of the Group's "Two Sessions" with heightened enthusiasm, determination, and pragmatic approaches. They focused on task objectives and effectively executed various work requirements, achieving a "good start" in production and operations in the first month, laying a solid foundation for high-quality development throughout the year. In January, iron production remained flat YoY, steel production increased by 0.56% YoY, hot-rolled material production rose by 1.72% YoY, and Zhixin Electromagnetic production surged by 27.66% YoY, while Shunyi Cold Rolling increased by 13.27% YoY. Both Zhixin Electromagnetic and Shunyi Cold Rolling set new monthly production records, achieving a strong start to the year.

⭕Xingang's First Cold Heading Steel Order Delivered, Opening a New Chapter in Special Long Products.Recently, Xingang successfully rolled its first batch of cold heading steel products, marking a solid step forward in the field of special long products. At the end of November 2024, an end-user in Hunan placed an urgent order with Xingang for 660 mt of cold heading steel, requesting delivery to begin within one month. To meet this demand, the Special Steel Division's technical personnel collaborated with the Baowu support team, holding multiple meetings to discuss the order, determine process parameters, and establish workflows, laying a solid foundation for the first successful trial rolling on December 17, 2024. During subsequent production, the Special Steel Division assigned specialists to closely monitor the process, promptly addressing issues and flexibly adjusting processes based on on-site feedback. The first batch of cold heading steel products was successfully shipped to the customer on December 24, 2024.

In early January, Xingang conducted a follow-up visit to the user. Due to the outstanding product quality, the customer gave high praise to "Xingang-made" products during the visit.