This week, spot prices for cobalt intermediate products continued to rise gradually. On the supply side, major enterprises maintained their practice of not offering quotations, while some small-lot spot transactions were concluded around $25.5 per pound. Demand side, after the recent sustained increase in cobalt salt prices, cost pressures eased somewhat, leading to stronger inquiry willingness among smelters. Regarding export policies, it was reported that cobalt intermediate products from pilot enterprises had completed export procedures and were in the process of being shipped. However, given the relatively small scale of current pilot exports and the lengthy transportation cycle, the earliest arrival of large quantities was not expected until after April 2026. In the short term, the logic of structural tightness in domestic raw materials remained unchanged, with solid support at the lower end of prices.

Refined cobalt spot prices fluctuated downward this week. Supply side, smelters continued to hold prices firm amid raw material cost support; hedging merchants kept spot-futures price spreads generally stable; speculative traders maintained bullish sentiment and temporarily suspended offers. Demand side, under high raw material cost pressure, purchasing remained cautious, with only just-in-time procurement maintained. Cobalt salt prices continued to rise this week, with reverse smelting profits recovering, providing support for refined cobalt prices. Refined cobalt is expected to maintain sideways movement in the short term, pending further cobalt salt price increases to lift the price center.

Cobalt sulphate sentiment improved this week, with the transaction center continuing to move upward. On the supply side, smelters held prices firm, and medium-to-high grade cobalt sulphate traded in small volumes near 95,000 yuan/mt, with offers raised further to 96,000 yuan/mt; low-grade cobalt sulphate traded up to around 98,000 yuan/mt, with offers raised to 98,000–100,000 yuan/mt. On the demand side, purchase willingness from ternary and cobalt tetroxide enterprises rebounded under the impact of the export tax rebate policy, and spot inquiry activity increased significantly. Overall, with downstream procurement and cost support reinforcing each other, cobalt sulphate prices were expected to hold up well in the short term.

Chile’s state-owned development agency Corfo has awarded up to $5.8 million to two research projects focused on direct lithium extraction (DLE) and rare earth recovery to boost mining innovation and create new business lines.

Core View: In 2025, China's iron phosphate industry entered a phase of structural tight balance. The total designed capacity is expected to reach 5.6 million mt by year-end, but effective capacity will fall short of 5 million mt. The market is supported by both the "external sales" model (54%) and the "integrated" model (46%), with top-tier enterprises such as Brunp, Tinci, and CNGR dominating the supply landscape. Entering 2026, as companies like Guizhou Yayou shift toward internal supply, new capacity releases lag, and key raw materials such as sulfur and ferrous sulphate face tightening supply, the industry will confront more severe supply pressures and cost challenges. Iron phosphate prices are expected to remain above 12,000 yuan/mt, with enterprises operating at break-even to marginal profitability.

LiPure Energy is a startup focused on solid-state batteries with polymer and silicon carbon anodes. Its first-generation 0.5Ah–50Ah products have passed extreme safety tests and received authoritative certification. The company is advancing capacity construction, with a 1 GWh ESS battery project in Jiangxi already entering the environmental impact assessment stage. Through bank credit lines, partnerships with equipment suppliers, and pilot projects, the company is accelerating its transition from R&D to market applications, initially targeting e-bike battery swapping and ESS scenarios.

On January 10, 2026, Heyuan Lithium Innovation's Huaian base, the first dedicated solid-state battery mass production base in China, officially commenced operations and launched the "Liuhe Battery." The company focuses on the oxide electrolyte pathway, with its product matrix covering an energy density range of 250–600 Wh/kg, and has already secured orders from leading drone and unmanned vehicle customers. The operation of its 10 GWh Huaian base and the ongoing construction of its 20 GWh Xiantao base mark the company's completion of a full-chain layout from technological R&D to large-scale commercial delivery.

Overseas solid-state batteries show a pattern with sulphides as the mainstream, oxides targeting high-end applications, and polymers exploring alternative paths. Japanese and South Korean enterprises have the most mature technology, with Toyota, Samsung, and SK On planning mass production from 2026-2029, though this will likely be delayed; US companies are capital-driven but lack clear commercialization pathways; Europe focuses on high-end applications. The core bottlenecks lie in interface impedance degradation, low-temperature performance, and mass production costs, with the final battle for technological routes expected after 2030.