Domestic Market Shows Weak Supply and Demand; Spot Market Transactions Halted [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary on January 27, 2025 This week, the tin market exhibited volatility and uncertainty, with SHFE tin prices experiencing significant fluctuations under the interplay of bullish and bearish factors. In the international market, macroeconomic data, policy changes, and supply-demand dynamics collectively influenced market trends. Specifically, the price of the most-traded SHFE tin futures contract initially rose after the New Year opening but subsequently pulled back, closing lower compared to the previous trading day. Supply side, refined tin production in December declined by 4.41%, and the approach of the Chinese New Year may lead to further production decreases. The operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces dropped to 47.57%, indicating increased pressure on raw material supply. Demand side, the recovery expectations in the new energy and electronics industries remain optimistic, particularly with the growing demand for tin in the EV and renewable energy sectors, which is expected to support tin prices in the medium and long term. However, in the short term, market sentiment has turned cautious due to low inventory levels and policy changes. In the spot market, transactions were mediocre, with most traders engaging in scattered deals. Some imported tin arrived at ports, but due to high pre-sale volumes, spot imported tin remained relatively tight. With the combined influence of domestic and international economic conditions, policy adjustments, and supply-demand dynamics in the tin industry, SHFE tin prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term. Investors should closely monitor global economic data, domestic economic policies, and changes in industry demand to better grasp market dynamics and mitigate risks. Additionally, as the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, logistics services have ceased operations, and spot trading has largely come to a halt. Some enterprises have adopted a strategy of fixing prices before the holiday and picking up goods afterward. Considering the current market conditions and the impact of the holiday, SHFE tin prices are expected to fluctuate downward. Market participants should pay attention to international trade developments and post-holiday market recovery to make more informed investment decisions.