Will PV-Grade EVA Prices Remain Firm? [SMM Analysis]

In January, the production of PV-grade EVA was 95,500 mt, down 11.6% MoM. The main reasons for the production decrease were that some producers partially shifted to LDPE production, while others reduced output due to planned maintenance lasting 5-7 days or equipment malfunctions. Additionally, as the Chinese New Year holiday approached, the import volume of overseas EVA also declined, further tightening the spot supply in the market.

Looking ahead to future prices, EVA prices are expected to remain firm in H1 2025.

During January-February 2025, EVA market prices remained stable. As the Chinese New Year approached, stockpiling activities in the market gradually came to an end, leading to relatively weak transactions. However, some positive market changes, such as rising logistics costs, continued supply tightness, and stockpiling, drove spot prices higher. After the Chinese New Year, logistics issues are expected to ease around February 10, stabilizing overall market prices. Favorable factors include PV inventory returning to normal levels by the end of February, reducing inventory pressure in the market. Currently, overall EVA inventory is extremely low, and the traditional foaming peak season in February is expected to generate demand exceeding 100,000 mt. However, the market also faces some unfavorable factors, such as a decline in module production schedules in February leading to weaker demand, falling LDPE film material prices prompting producers to shift to LDPE production, and the launch of new facilities by Sierbang at the end of February, which poses challenges to market confidence.

From March-May 2025, EVA prices may decline in March but rebound in April-May due to demand support. Supply in March is expected to increase significantly, and despite some recovery in demand, the market will still experience a supply surplus overall. As a result, the detailed production schedules of petrochemical producers will become a key focus of the market. During April-May, with a significant increase in module production schedules, demand for EVA in PV materials is expected to rise, driving prices upward.

From June-August 2025, the production schedules of PV modules are expected to weaken, but the supply of PV materials will remain at a high level. Notably, the facilities commissioned in May are expected to achieve stable production of PV-grade EVA during this period, which may indicate that the domestic monthly PV supply could exceed 140,000 mt.