Policy Direction Unclear, Iron Ore Prices Fluctuate Rangebound [SMM Commentary]

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Today, DCE iron ore fluctuated repeatedly throughout the day. The most-traded I2505 contract finally closed at 800.5 yuan/mt, up 0.13% for the day. Traders followed the market trend to sell. Steel mills reduced demand before the holiday, with fewer inquiries. Today's market transaction sentiment was average. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction prices of PB fines were 785-790 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from last Friday; in Tangshan, PB fines transaction prices were around 810-815 yuan/mt, down 0-5 yuan/mt from last Friday.

According to SMM shipping data, global iron ore shipments tracked by SMM totaled 26.84 million mt last week, down 6.7% WoW. Specifically, shipments from Australia dropped significantly by 20.3% WoW to 14.43 million mt due to cyclones, while shipments from Brazil fell slightly by 4.8% WoW to 5.44 million mt due to continuous heavy rainfall. Meanwhile, China's iron ore arrivals during this period totaled 21.76 million mt, down sharply by 17.75% WoW. Overall supply decreased significantly, easing supply and demand pressure. However, due to market uncertainty regarding policies under Trump's administration, risk aversion sentiment was evident, leading to price fluctuations. In the short term, special attention should be paid to the impact of this news on the market.