Chinese New Year Approaching: Trading Dynamics of the Lead Industry Chain [SMM Analysis]

Published: Jan 17, 2025 17:27
[SMM Analysis: Trading Dynamics of Lead Industry Chain as Chinese New Year Approaches] SMM, January 17: With the Chinese New Year atmosphere growing stronger, trading activity among upstream and downstream enterprises in the lead industry chain has significantly declined. Supply side, battery scrap recyclers stated that they are optimistic about post-holiday prices and are currently reluctant to sell. Coupled with the already limited market supply, purchasing is relatively under pressure...

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SMM, January 17:

As the Chinese New Year atmosphere intensifies, trading activity among upstream and downstream enterprises in the lead industry chain has significantly declined. Supply side, battery scrap recyclers indicated that store prices are expected to rise after the holiday, leading to a reluctance to sell; coupled with the already limited market supply, this has created some pressure on purchases. Mainstream store quotes for battery scrap have shown little fluctuation recently, tending to remain stable.

Since most secondary lead smelters nationwide are either preparing for shutdowns or have already ceased operations, and many smelters intend to stock up raw materials before resuming production after the holiday, the activity in the battery scrap market has already declined at this stage.

The plastic market is also mediocre, with the transaction performance of battery scrap casing fragments in south China slightly better than in north China. According to a secondary lead smelter in central China, the self pick-up prices including tax are as follows: Green S at 6,000 yuan/mt, Black S at 4,650 yuan/mt, Large Gray-White ABS at 5,150 yuan/mt including tax, White PP at 6,300 yuan/mt, and Black PP at 6,000 yuan/mt.

Demand side, downstream battery producers have generally started their holidays earlier, with most expected to halt production around January 20. According to market sources, a major battery producer's Jiangsu production site has largely ceased operations for the holiday, while its Anhui production site will stop in a few days. After the holiday, there is an expectation of significant lead ingot procurement, and this news has already impacted lead prices this past Friday, with the most-traded SHFE lead contract rebounding as shorts reduced positions. Additionally, some small and medium-sized battery producers indicated that they still have minor just-in-time procurement plans before the holiday and are closely monitoring lead price trends before January 25.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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