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With the Chinese New Year holiday approaching, most copper cathode rod enterprises have finalized their production and holiday arrangements during the holiday period. Based on market communication and a YoY comparison with 2024, SMM provides the following detailed analysis:
According to SMM, the holiday period for most copper cathode rod enterprises during the 2025 Chinese New Year has been extended, with an average holiday duration of 15-16 days. Additionally, the number of enterprises halting production and taking early holidays has significantly increased compared to previous years. From the consumption perspective, pre-holiday copper prices remain high, leading to a notable weakening in downstream new orders and an overall sluggish market. The shipment pace of copper cathode rod enterprises has slowed, and many have already started inventory buildup. During the pullback in copper prices in December, as most enterprises pushed for annual target at year-end with increased production and sales, the market believes that a certain amount of pre-holiday inventory buildup has already been released. If copper prices do not experience a significant pullback before the holiday, further pre-holiday inventory buildup consumption is unlikely.
From the perspective of copper cathode rod enterprises' inventory buildup, due to high pre-holiday premiums and the late resumption of operations by many enterprises, most do not plan to stockpile large amounts of copper cathode but instead produce copper rods as inventory.
Looking ahead, most enterprises do not hold optimistic expectations for post-holiday consumption. If copper prices pull back after the holiday, consumption growth is expected, with future order expectations remaining strongly correlated with copper prices.
