Spot Silicon Metal Prices Fluctuate Downward; February Silicon Wafer Production Schedule Expected to Increase [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM January 17 News:

Silica

Prices

This week, silica prices remained stable. As the Chinese New Year approaches, downstream silicon plants have extremely low demand for raw material procurement. Overall silica procurement demand is expected to recover around March next year, while the recovery of raw material procurement demand in silicon plants in south China may be delayed further, likely starting gradually around April-May. Currently, the mine-mouth price of low-grade silica in Yunnan is 340-360 yuan/mt. The mine-mouth price of high-grade silica is 360-390 yuan/mt in Inner Mongolia, 420-450 yuan/mt in Hubei, and 440-460 yuan/mt in Jiangxi.

Supply and Demand

Supply: With the addition of numerous newly established mining rights in 2024, the overall supply of silica production remains ample.

Demand: Pre-holiday raw material inventory replenishment has largely concluded, coupled with the recent low operating rates in the silicon metal industry, leading to a further decline in overall demand for raw silica.

Silicon Metal

Prices

Yesterday, the ex-factory price of above-standard #553 silicon metal in east China was 10,800-10,900 yuan/mt, down 250 yuan/mt WoW. In the futures market, the most-traded Si2503 contract fluctuated upward this week, closing at 10,685 yuan/mt on Thursday afternoon, up 300 yuan/mt from last week's lowest point. Spot silicon metal prices continued to fluctuate downward, with sluggish spot market transactions.

Production

Based on supply-demand balance calculations, the surplus of silicon metal supply in December was approximately 20,000 mt. In January, the supply and demand of silicon metal are expected to remain weak on both sides, with a basic balance anticipated. A small number of medium and small silicon enterprises in the north may plan production cuts and maintenance after the Chinese New Year. However, new existing capacity is also gradually entering the market. Changes in the operating rates of small and medium-sized silicon enterprises on the supply side before and after the Chinese New Year should be closely monitored.

Inventory

Social Inventory: According to SMM statistics, as of January 10, the national social inventory of silicon metal totaled 536,000 mt, down 3,000 mt WoW. Among them, general social warehouses held 152,000 mt, down 5,000 mt WoW, while social delivery warehouses held 384,000 mt (including unregistered warehouse warrants and spot cargo), up 2,000 mt WoW.

Silicon Wafers

Prices

The market price of N-type 18X silicon wafers was 1.18-1.18 yuan/piece, and the price of N-type 210RN silicon wafers was 1.3-1.35 yuan/piece. Silicon wafer prices remained stable yesterday. However, as previous orders were completed and prices increased, downstream order-taking capacity weakened.

Production

Currently, the probability of silicon wafer production expansion in February appears high. Production expansion among top-tier enterprises is relatively common, especially among integrated enterprises, which are opting to increase their self-supply ratio given current prices.

Inventory

Silicon wafer inventory remains relatively low, with tight shipments for certain models.

PV Film

Prices

EVA/POE PV-Grade Materials

The transaction price of PV-grade EVA was 10,400-10,700 yuan/mt. The domestic delivery-to-factory price of PV-grade POE was approximately 12,000-13,500 yuan/mt, with POE prices remaining stable.

PV Film

Currently, the mainstream price of 420g transparent EVA film is 5.29-5.46 yuan/m², 420g white EVA film is 5.67-6.05 yuan/m², 380g EPE film is 5.79-5.89 yuan/m², and 380g POE film is 6.84-7.22 yuan/m².

Production

In January, the planned production of PV-grade EVA was approximately 100,000 mt, while the planned production of PV film was about 350 million m². Orders have decreased, leading to reduced production schedules.

Inventory

Currently, stockpiling demand is nearing its end. Petrochemical inventory remains extremely low, and with petrochemical plant maintenance plans, inventory levels are within a controllable range.