SMM Analysis: Copper Billet Market to Decline First and Then Rise in 2024, What About the Outlook for 2025?

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       According to SMM data, the copper billet market in 2024 showed a persistent weak trend. However, some enterprises indicated that their order situation in 2024 slightly improved compared to 2023, mainly reflected in H2, for the following reasons:

       Market Slump in H1: In H1 2024, the significant rise in copper prices had a noticeable suppressive effect on downstream demand, leading to a contraction in demand. Meanwhile, the price difference between domestic and international copper resulted in import losses, reducing the purchase willingness of copper billet enterprises and subsequently affecting their operating rates.

       Market Recovery in H2: Firstly, driven by the "September-October peak season" effect, September and October are traditionally peak consumption months, during which market demand increased, bringing more orders to copper billet enterprises. Additionally, Q4 itself is a traditional peak season for the copper billet market, especially in the refrigeration industry. Furthermore, starting from November, due to uncertainties surrounding tariff policies after Trump's inauguration, downstream enterprises rushed to export to mitigate potential risks, which to some extent increased the order volume for copper billet enterprises, allowing their operating rates to recover gradually.

       In summary, the copper billet market in 2024 experienced challenges in H1 but showed mild signs of recovery in H2. However, the market outlook for 2025 remains challenging, with SMM predicting that the copper billet market will continue to face pressure in 2025.

       Currently, as downstream enterprises gradually enter holiday mode, order demand has significantly weakened. Small and medium-sized enterprises, constrained by factors such as funding, have entered the holiday period earlier, further exacerbating the market's weak trend. Coupled with uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment, downstream enterprises generally hold a pessimistic view of the market outlook, with stocking willingness lower than in previous years, further hindering the market recovery process. Meanwhile, the rise and fall of the real estate market directly impact the demand for construction-use copper billets. SMM data shows that in recent years, housing sales areas have continued to decline, and construction activities have decreased, which may lead to a corresponding reduction in copper billet demand. Against this backdrop, some copper billet enterprises have decided to lower their business targets for 2025. However, it is undeniable that with the global emphasis on environmental protection and sustainable development, the new energy sector, particularly industries such as electric vehicles, wind power, and solar power, may bring new growth opportunities to the copper billet market.