Global Shipments Slightly Decline, Iron Ore Prices Fluctuate Rangebound [SMM Commentary]

》View SMM Steel Product Prices, Data, and Market Analysis

》Subscribe to Access Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

Today, Dalian iron ore fluctuated upward. The most-traded I2505 contract closed at 768.5 yuan/mt, up 1.92% for the day. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm for selling. Steel mills remained cautious, purchasing as needed. Market trading sentiment was moderate today. In Shandong, mainstream transaction prices for PB fines were 770-775 yuan/mt, up 10-15 yuan/mt from last Friday; in Tangshan, PB fines transaction prices were around 790 yuan/mt, also up 10-15 yuan/mt from last Friday. The latest cycle's total global iron ore shipments tracked by SMM reached 28.78 million mt, down 10.3% WoW. Among them, Australian shipments were 18.11 million mt, up slightly by 0.7% WoW; Brazilian shipments were 5.71 million mt, down significantly by 25.1% WoW. SMM's total iron ore port arrivals in China were 26.89 million mt, up slightly by 1.63% WoW. Although shipments declined significantly this cycle, considering the high shipment volumes in December, January port arrivals are expected to remain high, continuing to exert pressure on ore prices. Given the market's potential anticipation of restocking completion, caution is advised against the risk of ore prices pulling back after a rebound.